ONTO创新（ONTO）迎来更多向好机遇：启动覆盖并给予买入评级

Initiation of Coverage ONTO bigger and better things;Initiating coverage with a Buy Valuation & Risks Melissa WeathersResearch Analyst We are initiating coverage of semicap equipment maker Onto Innovation (ONTO)with a Buy rating and $350 price target (~32x our CY27 EPS). We see ONTO asbenefitting from a fast-growing WFE spending environment ahead of a historic fabbuildout cycle in the coming years. On top of this industry-wide growth, we believeONTO has several company-specific vectors that should enable it to outgrow peers,including SAM expansion through strategic acquisitions and share gains from newproduct ramps. We believe current Street estimates do not appropriately reflect thisgrowth potential, with our 2027 and 2028 revenue estimates standing +5% / +9%above Street estimates, respectively. While ONTO currently trades at a premium to Apoorva KumarResearch Associate Ross SeymoreResearch Analyst Secular exposure to some of the fastest-growing parts of semisONTO is a key supplier of critical process control tools for front-end and back-end semiconductor manufacturing. Although KLAC is the dominant player in this space(roughly 50 - 60% market share), we see ONTO as a smaller, more nimble player withseveral vectors to gain share, especially in advanced packaging. AdvancedPackaging is one of the fastest-growing portions of the semis market and a keyenabler of next-gen AI processors. Because of the rising complexity of AIprocessors (more complex HBM, 3D stacking, co-packaged optics), the AdvancedPackaging equipment market is expected to grow more than 50% in 2026 alone. At Competition heating up, but we see ONTO sustaining / regaining shareBecause of the rising importance of process control, we have seen an increase in competition in the last several years — particularly from KLAC, which has begun toaddress middle-end and back-end markets. In 2025, KLAC gained significant share 4 June 2026Semiconductors ~10ppts of lost share). Looking forward, we believe ONTO has strengthened itsproduct roadmap (Dragonfly G5 qualified at key packaging and HBM customersearlier this year), which should enable it to regain lost share and drive above-industry revenue growth. In addition, we see new product momentum andexpansion into new markets (charge metrology via Semilab acquisition; X-ray via DB revenue outlook above Street in 2027/2028All told, our ONTO revenue estimates stand +5% above Street estimates in 2027 and +9% higher in 2028. This strong growth is driven by regaining share at keycustomers via new product qualifications, overall TAM growth as process controlneeds rise with increased node and packaging complexity (macro defect inspection+ critical films combined TAMs expected to grow to $1.25 - 1.75b), and a massivefab buildout driving WFE spend well above historical growth rates. When combined Valuation attractive on a relative basisONTO shares currently trade at a sizable discount to large-cap semicap and smaller process control peers. Comparable companies trade in the mid-30s PE range on ourCY27E EPS, whereas ONTO trades at only ~26x our above-Street CY27E EPS (~29xon Street EPS). This discount reflects fears of continued share loss versus larger andbetter-resourced peers, which we believe to be overblown. Thus, we believe this Initiate coverage with Buy and $350 PTWe initiate coverage of ONTO with a Buy rating and $350 PT. Our PT is based on ~32x our above-Street 2027 EPS, a premium to ONTO’s historical average but stilla sizable discount to process control peers and the broader semiconductor capitalequipment group. Downside risks include moderating process-control intensity, a Investment Thesis We are initiating coverage on Onto Innovation (ONTO) with a BUY rating and aprice target of $350 (~32x our CY27 EPS). Key Takes nThe rising criticality of advanced packaging creates a growing marketopportunity for co's like ONTO, which sell specialized metrology andinspection tools for back-end applications. nwell-positioned to regain share in back-end process control due to its recentproduct qualifications and strengthening demand in advanced packaging. nRecent customer wins have significantly strengthened the company's2026 outlook, with ONTO anticipating continued momentum into 2027 asit explores new growth verticals (photonics / co-packaged optics). nValuation-wise, ONTO trades at ~26x our CY27 EPS and ~29x consensusCY27 EPS — both of which reflect a significant and unwarranted discountto process control peers and the broader semicap group. nONTO's significantly lower China exposure positions it favorably amidstongoing geopolitical tensions and supply chain decoupling. The shift from shrink-to-stack is a structural tailwind for ONTO sharesThe semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant shift as traditional transistor miniaturization faces physical and economic limitations. This haspropelled advanced packaging (A/P) to the forefront, offering a new avenue forperformance gains by inte