锡：加工费再次调涨，周内小幅去库

锡：加工费再次调涨，周内小幅去库 作者 锡价周内小涨，加工费再次调涨 本周宏观面多空因素交织，但利多因素整体占据上风，沪锡呈触底反弹态势。截至2026/06/18，SMM: 1#锡价收于41.9万元/吨，环比+2.4%，SHFE锡价收于41.4万元/吨，环比+1.6%，LME锡收于53415美元/吨，环比-1%。 分析师廖浩祥SAC：S1070526040006邮箱：liaohaoxiang@cgws.com 40%/60%含量锡精矿加工费周内均价分别为17500元/吨、13500元/吨，环比上涨1000元/吨。 现货交易心态买涨不买跌，周内小幅去库 需求端，2026年4月全球半导体销售额1136.8亿美元，同比+106%，维持高增。现货市场方面，锡价反弹初期，下游恐慌情绪蔓延，补库意愿较强；但随后锡价持续回调，下游采购情绪再度转为观望，持货商出货受阻，市场整体成交氛围明显转淡。 分析师熊可为SAC：S1070525110001邮箱：xiongkewei@cgws.com 库存端，本周，SMM国内锡锭社会库存为10190吨，环比-502吨。SHFE+LME交易所锡库存18256吨，环比-665吨，其中SHFE-785吨，LME +120吨。 宏观面加息预期升温：6月FOMC会议后的点阵图显示：2026年底利率预测中位数从3月的3.4%上调至3.8%。 展望 短期：基本面矿端持续偏紧；宏观面加息预期升温限制锡价高度，预计6月锡价偏震荡。 长期：全球锡供需仍存缺口，且供应链脆弱性不断冲击市场预期，持续看好锡价中枢上移。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期、海外矿山供给释放超预期、宏观美联储降息不及预期风险、报告中的数据可能有滞后风险 内容目录 宏观&行业动态..........................................................................................................................................31.价格：周内锡价小涨，加工费再次调涨......................................................................................................32.库存：持续去库.......................................................................................................................................43.供给：5月进口环比回升..........................................................................................................................54.4月表需环比下滑....................................................................................................................................6附：终端景气度及年度供需平衡表...............................................................................................................7消费电子.............................................................................................................................................7半导体................................................................................................................................................7供需平衡表.........................................................................................................................................8风险提示...................................................................................................................................................8 图表目录 图表1：美联储降息概率（CME）...............................................................................................................3图表2：美联储降息点阵图........................................................................................................................3图表3：锡价走势.....................................................................................................................................3图表4：沪锡市场现货日度升贴水（元/吨）................................................................................................3图表5：国内锡精矿价格（元/吨）.............................................................................................................4图表6：锡精矿加工费（元/吨）................................................................................................................4图表7：精炼锡成本（外购锡精矿）...........................................................................................................4图表8：锡锭社会库存（吨）.....................................................................................................................4图表9：SHFE+LME交易所锡库存（吨）....................................................................................................4图表10：国内锡精矿产量（吨）................................................................................................................5图表11：锡矿进口（实物吨）...................................................................................................................5图表12：锡矿进口-缅甸（实物吨）...........................................................................................................5图表13：锡矿进口-刚果金（实物吨）........................................................................................................5图表14：印尼交易所成交量（吨）.............................................................................................................5图表15：精炼锡产量（吨）......................................................................................................................6图表16：精炼锡开工率（%）...................................................................................................................6图表17：周度锡锭产量（吨）...................................................................................................................6图表18：锡表观消费（吨）......................................................................................................................7图表19：国内矿端供需缺口情况（金属吨）................................................................................................7图表20：全球智能手机出货，分季度.........................................................................................................7图表21：全球PC出货，分季度.................................................................................................................7图表22：半导体销售额Vs.锡价.................................................................................................................8图表23：半导体指数........................