Materials: Concerns largely priced in; Attractive valuation

Concernslargelypriced in; Attractivevaluation The aluminium sector has come under pressuresinceearlyAprdue totheeaseof conflict in the Middle East,thepotential restriction of bauxite export fromGuinea andsector rotation.Wereiterateour view that the resumptionsofaluminium productionbeing affectedin the Middle East will likely take 12-18months,due to theexpensive and time-consumingprocessto drain and relinethe pots(for details, please refer to our sector note“A prolonged supply deficiteven assuming the end of Iran war”published on 12 May). Besides,anyunexpectedrestart of conflict over the medium term, whichis also likelygiventhe lack of trust between the US and Iran, will add uncertainties to the regionalaluminium supplyfrom time to time, in our view.On the other hand, we seethepotential change of bauxite export policy in Guinea to have manageable impacttoChina Hongqiao(1378 HK, BUY),given the investmentin Guinea’s miningand alumina refinery.China Hongqiao is now trading at5.6x2026E P/E and~11%yield,which we thinkis attractive.Hongqiao Holdings (002379 CH,BUY), themajorsubsidiary of ChinaHongqiao,is trading at 8x 2026E P/E with>9% yield.We also haveBUYrating onChuangxin Industries (2788 HK),avolume growth play in the sector. China Materials Sector Wayne FUNG, CFA(852) 3900 0826waynefung@cmbi.com.hk Related reports: A prolonged supply deficit evenassuming the end of Iran war–12 May2026 (link) Hongqiao Holdings (002379 CH)-Highearnings sensitivity to aluminium price,high dividend payout; initiate with BUY–12 May 2026 (link) China Hongqiao (1378 HK)–Majorsubsidiary’s 1Q26 profit +38% YoY; inline with expectations–27 Apr 2026(link) China Hongqiao (1378 HK)–2025 coreprofit in-line; Supply disruption to driveASP in 2026E–22 Mar 206 (link) ◼Aluminium priceassumptionsunchanged.Shanghai aluminium priceYTDgained 17%YoY to RMB24.2k/t(VAT-included).Our full yearassumptionis unchanged at RMB23.7k/t(+15% YoY),which impliesRMB23.2k/t in 2H26E(+10% YoY).◼ Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK)–Takeaways from post-results meeting–20 Mar 2026 (link) ChinaHongqiao is back to mid-cycle valuation.After the recentpullback, Hongqiao is now trading at slightly below the historical average of6x forward P/E.We think the major market concerns have been in the price.We expect a stabilisation of aluminium price and potential share buybackwill serve as positive catalysts. Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK)–2025profit +33% YoY; surprising dividend–18 Mar 2026 (link) Production cut in Qatar to furtherincrease supply risks; +ve to aluminiumprice–4 Mar 2026 (link) Potential supply disruption in the MiddleEast will support the aluminium price–2Mar 2026 (link) Aluminium price to be fuelled by tightsupply throughout 2026–4 Feb 2026(link) China Hongqiao (1378 HK)-Raisingearnings and TP on higher aluminiumprice–4 Feb 2026 (link) Source: Bloomberg, company data, CMBIGM estimates Sector valuation Favourable demand and supply profile Source: IAI, CMBIGM estimates Source: IAI, CMBIGM estimates Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates Source: Antaike, CMBIGM estimates Source: Antaike, CMBIGM estimates Sector pricing Source:Bloomberg, CMBIGM Source:Bloomberg, CMBIGM Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGM Source: Wind, CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primaryresponsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about thesubject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst norhis/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and FuturesCommission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report;(2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interestsin the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report.CMBIGM or its affiliate(s) have investment banking relationship with the issuers covered in this report in preceding 12 months. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return ofover 15% over next 12 months: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 months: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM HOLDSELLNOT RATED OUTPERFORM:Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsMARKET-PERFORM:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmar