FANUC：利润增长已反映在估值中

We believe Fanuc has incorporated the impact of geopolitical risks inits FY3/27 sales and profit guidance. Mgmt's conservatism and positivetrend of Japanese machine tool industry orders and the industry's robotproduction data suggest upside to company plan. Nonetheless, we believesuch scenario is reflected in the share price, as our new price target basedon a peak multiple of the previous order cycle offers limited upside. Market sentiment:Fanuc had underperformed the TOPIX during March-April, given thatinvestors thought geopolitical uncertainties could have made mgmt either reveal a weak OPguidance or postpone the disclosure of its forecast. After FY3/26 results announcement on24 Apr, the stock then outperformed the TOPIX during 27 Apr and 1 May, because in-line OPguidance (memo) with the consensus forecast has apparently offered comfort to the market,and should have triggered short-cover activity, in our view. We believe near-term share pricemomentum should be sustained by positive trend of Japanese machine tool industry ordersand Japan's robot industry production data (our industrial data book). Mgmt's comment on the orders (memo):Q4 FY3/26 orders were +19% YoY/+14% QoQat ¥252bn. Factory Automation segment orders ('FA', i.e., computerized numerical controlused by machine tools) were +40% YoY/+30% QoQ at ¥71.1bn. Mgmt saw front-loadedorders in China from machine toolmakers alongside surging data center and robotic relatedapplications. Robot orders were +11% YoY/+2% QoQ at ¥100.6bn, driven by electric vehiclerelated applications and increasing needs for automation among the general manufacturingindustry. Robomachine segment orders were +17% YoY/+42% QoQ at ¥43.8bn. Mgmtindicated that such order growth came from roboshot (injection molding machines) androbodrills (small-size metal-cutting machines). Mgmt saw solid orders for roboshot from IT,electronics, and precision equipment sector. The orders for robodrills were supported bysmartphone, semiconductor, and servers for data centers. Revising our forecast:Based on Fanuc's comment on its order environment, we revise up ourorder forecast for FY3/27 to ¥960bn (+9% YoY) from ¥904bn. This reflects stronger orders forFA than we had expected. We foresee FA orders of ¥268bn (+17% YoY) vs ¥217bn previously,Robot ¥412bn (+8%) vs ¥410bn, and Robomachine ¥133bn (flat) vs ¥130bn. We forecast Q1FY3/27 orders +11% YoY but -9% QoQ at ¥229bn, due to a high QoQ comparison base forFA and Robomachine. We raise our FY3/27 OP forecast to ¥217bn from ¥210bn (guidance:¥212bn). We lower our OP estimate for Robot to ¥102bn from ¥111.9bn as we cut our salesforecast, but raise that for FA and Robomachine to ¥94bn and ¥21bn, respectively, from¥79.4bn and ¥18.7bn to reflect better orders than our previous estimates. PT:We raise our price target to ¥7,000 from ¥6,800. This is based on our new FY3/27 EBITDAforecast and a peak EV/EBITDA of 21.5x (unchanged) during the previous order upcycle. The Long View: FANUC Investment Thesis We believe the timing of a real upturn of machine tool industry orders staysuncertain, and this affects the sustainability of any uptick in Fanuc's FactoryAutomation segment orders. We believe investors will not be excited aboutfurther improvement in robot orders after the completion of destockingactivity. Robomachine segment orders remain volatile. Any signs of aslowdown in order momentum in coming quarters would affect Fanuc'sshare price performance. Upside Scenario,¥8900, +30% Downside Scenario,¥5100, -25% Base Case,¥7000, +3% We forecast sustained earnings recovery overFY3/27-28, driven mainly by Fanuc's FA andRobot business. This should be supported byrecent uptrend of Japan's machine tool industryorders and positive implications from the YoYgrowth of Japan's robot industry production.Nonetheless, recent share price rally impliessuch profit growth may have been expected bythe market. Our base-case scenario price targetof ¥7,000 is based on an EV/EBITDA of 21.5x, onestandard above the average during FY3/21-23,the previous period of order yupcycle, and ourFY3/27 EBITDA forecast. FY3/27 sales exceed our base-scenario forecastby 20%, which leads to OP beating our base-scenario forecast by 38%; this is based on anassumption of stronger machine tool ordersover FY3/27 than we expect in our base-casescenario;our upside-scenario price target is¥8,900, based on an EV/EBITDA of 21.5x and ourbull-case FY3/27 EBITDA forecast of ¥349.8bn. FY3/27 sales miss our base-scenario forecastby 20%, which leads to OP falling short of ourbase-scenario forecast by 38%; this is based onan assumption of weaker machine tool ordersduringFY3/27 than our base-case forecast;downside-scenarioprice target of¥5,100 isderived from an EV/EBITDA of 21.5x and ourbear-case FY3/27 EBITDA forecast of ¥184.2bn. Sustainability Matters Catalysts Catalysts to Fanuc's share price include 1) Fanucreporting QoQ gains in Q1 FY3/27 orders; 2)comments on sustained uptrend in new ordersover the n