DTE能源公司（DTE）：故事不错，但大部分已反映在价格中

2024A2025E2026E6.837.227.746.837.217.7634,23636,85239,84514.9%14.9%15.5% 2027E8.358.3543,27915.4% Julien Dumoulin-Smith * | Equity Analyst+1 (281) 774-2066 | jds@jefferies.comBrian Russo, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8559 | brusso@jefferies.comPaul Zimbardo * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8497 | pzimbardo@jefferies.comJamieson Ward, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (281) 774-2081 | jamieson.ward@jefferies.comWhitney Mutalemwa * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 707-6413 | wmutalemwa@jefferies.comEthan Corcoran * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 284-2462 | ecorcoran@jefferies.com While we are above the guide midpoint, we maintain our Hold rating.We raise our price targetby +$2 to $148 to reflect higher premium for growth at DTE Electric and also NPV of 45Z from2028-2031.We see our valuation as relatively full with a +15% premium for Michigan electric utility - andalthough are marginally more bullish on the story, the valuation keeps us at Hold.Please see important disclosure information on pages 12 - 17 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. The Long View: DTE EnergyInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferWe see DTE as fairly valued at the moment, as it trades at a modest premiumover peers on a 2027 P/E multiple basis. We assume DTE's electric and gasutilities exceed their 9.9%/9.8% authorized ROEs, by 30 bps over the forecastperiod. Our projections include DTE Vantage growing earnings at ~11% CAGRthrough 2029 given most likely extension of 45Z/RNG tax credit through 2031.We project more capex increases before the next 5yr plan as data centeropportunities progress. We also add modest equity issuance to support highercapex. With capex upside and 45Z remaining in place we expect the companyto achieve the high-end of its 6%-8% earnings CAGR through 2029.Base Case,$148, +8%Our base case is predicated on 8% EPS growththrough 2029 vs. consensus of 6.9% (off FY24$6.83 actual) & guidance of 6%-8%. We projectDTE Vantage growing earnings at a CAGR of ~11%through 2029 with 45z in place. PT based on 2027SOTP. We apply 15% to the 2027 P/E Electricaverage peer multiple and 10% to 2027 P/E Gasaverage peer multiple.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issues:1. Carbon Emissions Reduction:DTE is committed to significantly reducing its carbon emissions, with anambitious goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050. This involves transitioning from coal to renewableenergy sources and enhancing energy efficiency across operations.2. Renewable Energy Investment:DTE is heavily investing in renewable energy, including wind and solar,to diversify its energy portfolio and support its carbon reduction targets. This investment also includescustomer programs like MIGreenPower that enable customers to reduce their carbon footprint.Company Targets:1. Achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, with interim goals of reducing carbon emissions by 85%by 2032 and 90% by 2040.2. Retire all remaining operating coal units by 2032 (prior IRP had targeted 2035).Questions to Management:1. At what point would data center demand for additional generation capacity result in incremental growthbeyond the high end of your CAGR?2. How would delays in cleaner generation build out impact your clean energy targets and MIGreenPowerprogram in the near and long-term?Please see important disclosure information on pages 12 - 17 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$162, +18%Our upside scenario contemplates DTE growingabovethe top of its 6%-8%EPS CAGR,andapplies an additional 10% premium to our 2027P/E multiple to account for the possibility thatgrowth outpaces our range-bound (i.e. 6%-8%)expectations. A potential driver of incrementalgrowth that we are monitoring is the level ofdemand for new capacity to serve data center loadthat would require material capital spending. Downside Scenario,$108, -21%Ourbase case assumes that DTE grows atthe bottom end of its 6%-8% EPS CAGR off of2025's $7.16 midpoint. It also includes a 20%reductionto the applied multiple in order toaccount for otherwise unquantified risks whichcouldpotentially cause DTE's earnings to fallbelow the bottom end of its aforementioned EPSCAGR.Catalysts•Data center deal announcements.•Electric Rate Case filing outcome and otherMichigan regulatory proceedings.•IRA tax credits phase out or extension resolution•Tariffs updates•IRP filing (late 2026) 3 A tale of two utilities: DTE +6% and CMS -3% YTD vs utilities peersDTE has been one of the better performers in 2025 and has positively re-rated trough -5% to peak+5%. In contrast, Michigan peer CMS Energy has relatively lagged recently, primarily due to the directunregulated exposure to investment tax credits (ITCs). While CMS faces direct earnings headwindsfrom the potential Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax reforms pending, DTE is a relative winner withrenewable natural gas (RNG) tax credit extension and relative impr