美洲电力与能源转型：积压背后的数据中心调查洞察

Americas Power and Energy Transition: Behind the Backlog -insights from our data center survey We initiated coverage on Americas Power and Energy Transition last week. ~20 calls and 1webinar in two days - initiation feedback notes coming soon! Sunaina Ocalan.+1 917 344 8503sunaina.ocalan@bernsteinsg.com For today, we wrote a quick note summarizing the survey we conducted of 50+ data centeroperators asking how they’ll source power over the next decade – and here are the keyinsights we gleaned: Anshika Bajpai+1 917 344 8306anshika.bajpai@bernsteinsg.com 1. Data center operators prefer a grid connection where possible.2. Speed to power and reliability are the main priorities when making decisions on powersources.3. Onsite power as back up is a critical design element, and likely here to stay.4. Grid constraints and data center growth intensifying the pressure on the grid were themain concerns for data center operators. Specialist Sales Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com It reiterated our bullish view on power demand, gas being a large part of this build out, andthat US grid upgrade/ resiliency will drive decade{s)-long capital allocation. Our Outperforms are GEV, FRVO, NEE, CEG, VST, and LNG. Our Market-Performs are BE, ENPH, TE, and VG. Our Underperforms are FSLR and ORA. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We believe the results of our survey favor the IPPs in our coverage with grid connected assets (CEG, VST both Outperform) aswell as providers of onsite power solutions (BE - Market-Perform). They are also positive for GEV (Outperform) as a provider ofgrid equipment, and NEE (Outperform) as a renewable energy power producer. DETAILS 1 - Grid is king– When we asked about expected power supply for data centers over the next 5-10 years, 98% of respondentssaid grid was the preferred connection. 12% said grid as primary source, and for sites over 100MW, 86% of operators preferredgrid interconnections supplemented by onsite generation. Behind the meter (BTM) is only ~5% of the power market for data centers, and we think it’ll continue to be 5-10% in the 2030timeframe. Typically, BTM is more expensive than grid connected power, and therefore used when grid connection or reliabilityare challenges. 100% of respondents said availability of grid capacity influence their site selection decision. This is a tailwind for VST, CEG and NEE that have grid connected assets, and have capacity to contract. 2 - Speed to power and reliability trump cost– In our coverage, speed to power benefits BE as they can deliver power in55-90 days. This is important when most of our respondents said more than three years to wait for a grid interconnection waseffectively unacceptable. Interconnection queues in most regions currently extend to 4+ years. Onsite power that is quick toinstall provides a supplementary solution. 3 - >95% ranked back up onsite power as a critical design element for times of power disruptions. Solar + BESS(Battery emery storage systems), natural gas (turbines or RICEPs) and fuel cellsemerged as the preferred power supplysources for onsite power for current and new data center developments. If data centers can be grid connected that would bebest, if not solar +BESS, or turbines or fuel cells as onsite with some level of grid connectivity is the preferred choice. 4 - 10% of our respondents suggestedcost was not a driverwhen and were okay with higher costs for onsite generation. 5 - 90% or more of respondents thoughtonsite backup is here to stayand that in the future large data centers will utilizehybrid power architectures combining grid supply and on-site generation. 6 - We asked a long form question around concerns and uncertainties - and five themes emerged from the responses: •Theme 1: Grid access is the primary constraint.Respondents consistently cited interconnection queues, transmissionlimitations, and grid reliability as the largest unknowns. - This drives our conviction behind GE Vernova’s electrificationbusiness and that the market is missing the “connectivity tissue” demand associated with data centers. •Theme 2: Permitting remains slow and uneven.Approval timelines were viewed as unpredictable across jurisdictions anda major source of schedule risk. •Theme 3: Power economics remain volatile.Electricity, gas, hydrogen, and storage costs were difficult to forecast,reducing confidence in long-term planning. •Theme 4: Emerging technologies are promising but not yet de-risked.Hydrogen and long-duration storage were seenas constrained by cost, fuel availability, and technology maturity. •Theme 5: Data center growth is intensifying system stress.Respondents were increasingly focused on whether utilitiesand grids can keep pace with hyperscale load growth. Reiterating our view on infrastructure build out is going to be key forreliability in the long run. 7 - Finally, we asked a long form question around how sustainability commitments shape power sourcing decis