英飞凌/瑞萨：CPU复苏成为功率半导体需求第二引擎，或将供不应求

Infineon/Renesas: CPU renaissance emerges as a second enginefor power semi demand, set to outstrip supply GPU server power semi TAM is set to grow 8x through 2030.We detailed the structuralgrowth in Artificial Intelligence - Energizing the Future of AI Data Centers, and in today’sreport, we extend forecast to 2030, expecting the AI GPU TAM to grow 8x from US$2.4bnin 2025 to US$18.6bn in 2030, driven by: 1. AI GW deployment grows from 19 GW in 2025to 70GW in 2030, expanding almost 4x, 2. Power $/ W almost doubles from $0.13/W in2025 to $0.27/W in 2030. This is due to 1. The 800V migration, 2. VRM going from lateral David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Carmine Milano, CFA+44 20 7762 1857carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com Jack Lin+852 2123 2683jack.lin@bernsteinsg.com CPU server power emerges as a second engine, as CPU TAM is now benefiting fromthe rise of agentic AI and is set to grow 6x from $39bn in 2025 to $223bn in 2030 (GlobalSemis: The CPU Renaissance? Beneficiaries of a $223bn TAM). We estimate that CPUserver power semi TAM is $1.2bn in 2025, and should grow inline with the server TAM.Conservatively assuming 5x growth, the CPU server power semi TAM is set to become $6bnin 2030. Combining GPU and CPU power, we estimate total data center power semi TAM to Juho Hwang+852 2123 2632juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com Power semi demand growth is set to surpass supply, which drives pricing upsidefor entire power semis (instead of just AI power).Driven by CPU&GPU, we forecast the$70bn power semi market to grow at 11% CAGR 2025-30, up from 6% CAGR in the lastdecade. Power semi capacity in the meanwhile is growing at only 6% 2025-27. Analogcompanies have announced price increases since the beginning of the year with IFX, TI, andNXP already announcing a second wave of increases. We expect power semis pricing to be Raising Renesas and Infineon PT for the benefit from rising CPU power semi andoverall power semi demand.Adding CPU server exposure, the total AI exposure goes upto 15% for Renesas and 13% for IFX in 2026, a lot higher than investors’ perception. By Infineon is a key beneficiary of power semis, given its high exposure (power is >50%of its revenue) and strong market leadership.It holds ~15% share in power discrete,over 40% in AI power semis, and 24% in auto power. Reflecting this, we have revised upour topline and margin estimates over the next three years, with Adj Dil. EPS now expectedto grow at a 42% CAGR25-28. We have also modestly increased our P/E target multipleto 30x from 25x, supported by pricing momentum.Our TP rises to €102 from €74.We For Renesas,we raise our 2H26-2028E revenue by 1%-11%, driven by pricing tailwindsand structural AI DC growth. Margin expansion is likely more modest given its asset-light,outsourced model, though investor expectations remain much lower; we forecast OPMto reach 37% by 2028. Net-net, we raise our 2026E-28E EPS by 1%-20%. Reflectingstronger pricing power and AI upside, we raise our target P/E to 20x (from 15x). Our new TPis¥6,300.00 (vs. ¥4,200 previously), based on 20X Q5-Q8 EPS. ReiterateOutperform. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rateInfineonOutperformwith PT =€102.00We rateRenesasOutperformwith PT =¥6,300.00. DETAILS GPU/CPU POWER SERVER TAM INCREASED WITH POWER PRICING MOMENTUM TO CONTINUE The primary growth driver for power semis is Datacenter demand, led by both GPU/Accelerator DC and CPU DC.Overall, we expect the AI Datacenter power market to expand at a 45% CAGR over the next five years, from ~US$3.5bn in 2025 to ~US$24.6bn by 2030. We expect pricing momentum to continue for power semis. As highlighted in Auto Semis Cycle Tracker 1Q26: Price hikesunderway as demand recovers, analog companies have announced price increases since the beginning of the year as demandrecovers. IFX, TI, and NXP have already announced a second wave of increases.We expect power semis to be particularly Power discrete ASPs are already recovering and have historically been highly sensitive to demand imbalances, rising by ~+60%during the post Covid bottleneck. Additionally, pricing should increase from higher upstream foundry prices as well as increased Infineon is a key beneficiarygiven its strong leadership in AI server power, with above 40% share, the broadest portfolio, andthe largest internal capacity, expected to exceed ~1M wpM for power semis by 2027. Infineon is also the clear leader in overallpower semis and, in particular, in automotive, which should remain a growth driver supported by xEV penetration, albeit at aslower pace. This should meaningfully support topline growth driven by power pricing increases.Renesas will also benefit EXHIBIT 2:Infineon is the market leader in the AI powermarket with 40% market share and we estimate it willrise to 44% in 2027. EXHIBIT 1:Extending our AI Accelerators power forecastto 2030 and factoring in the additional upside from CPUDC, which we estimate will grow nearly 5x over the nextfive years, w