2026年5月印度黄金市场更新

Highlights •International gold pricespull backtobroadly flat y-t-d,1domesticpricesrise13%, supported by the •Domesticpricediscountsretreat from May highs•Seasonal lull weighson gold jewellery demand, bar and coinbuyingalsomoderates•Indian gold ETFs see recordMayoutflows on profit taking,inflows resume in June•Digitalgold buying slows, but stays aboveaverage•Gold imports cool after dutyhike, butremain higher y/y. Gold’s gains ease Gold’s returns havemoderatedfrom the highs seen in early 2026.As of 15 June, international and domestic gold priceswere down 4.2% and 3.7%, respectively, fromtheendofMay.However, y-t-d performance diverges:while internationalprices are broadly flat, domestic prices are up around 13.2%, largely reflecting the9.0%increase in import dutyin mid- Elevated inflation concerns have led to expectationsthat major central banks will tighten their monetary policy; this hasraised the opportunity cost of holding gold andpressuredits recent performance.Improved investor risk sentimentand Month-end LBMA Price PM and domestic spot price changes and movement* Deep discountsfade Immediately after the mid-May import duty hikedomestic gold prices moved into a deep discount to officialor landedprice,3with the gap widening from an average of US$14/oz before the hike to nearly US$150/ozafter. Thissharpwidening reflected a demand-supply imbalance: higher domestic pricespromptedprofit-taking, boosting supply even asphysical buying remained under pressure.Adding to thesupplywere two further factors:the likely offloading by bulliondealerswhoimportedgoldprior to the duty hike, andthe inflow of old goldjewelleryexchanged for new.Since the NCDEX gold premium/discount relative to theofficialdomesticprice* Gold demand slows in off-season Market feedback suggests that gold jewellery demand remained subdued through May and early June, a seasonally softperiod that was further affected this year by an inauspicious period as per the Hindu calendar,4reducing retail footfalls.Gold price volatility also led to a cautious,“wait-and-watch”approach among consumers across regions and segments. Stakeholder interactionsindicatethat the Prime Minister’s appeal to limit gold buying weighed on discretionarypurchases, particularly in urban markets,althoughitseffectappears more limited in rural areas where there isrelatively In response tothissoftening, retailers have focused on old-gold exchange transactions. Anecdotal evidence suggeststhatthe share of exchange businesshas risen between5–15%,andfor some retailers hasaccountedfor as much as60- Overall, market participants broadly expect demand to remainsoftthrough June and July before improving from Augustonwardsas the seasonal demand cycle kicks in. Gold ETFs:flowsreverse in May Indian gold ETFs saw a sharp reversal in May,mirroringthe softer trend seen in global gold ETF flows.Domestic goldETFs recordedtheir first monthly net outflow since April 2025: net outflows stood at INR7.25bn (US$76mn), the largeston record in rupee terms.Gross redemptions also rose to a record INR33.30bn (US$348mn), highlighting the scale ofselling during the month.Despite this, overall holdings were broadly steady at 116.5t, in line with our estimates, while Outflows were likely driven by profit-takingfollowingthe mid-May import duty hikeof 9% thatpushed domestic goldpricesand the traded price of ETFs sharply higher.INR gold prices rose by around 6% soon after the hike,promptinginvestors to lock in gains.This was also visible in folio data: investor accounts declined by 134,343 in May,the sharpestmonthly fall on record,bringing the total number of active folios to 12.3mn.Thehighredemptions andreductionin But the outflows appearto have been short-lived.Flows turned positive again in early June, with net inflows of INR16.31bn (US$171mn) between 1–11 June, suggesting that investor interest in gold ETFsremains strong. Separately,several fund houses5introducedtemporarylimits on large investments into gold ETFs(with directsubscriptions capped at INR25cr/~US$2.6mn) andgold ETF fund-of-funds (lump-sum investments capped at INR10 lakh/~US$10.6k per PAN per calendar month).Although the fund houses have pointed to prevailing market and economicconditions, thesemeasures come amid broader concerns around gold imports, external balances, currency pressures,and thePrime Minister’sappeal to consumersto curtailtheirgold buying.Giventhatlarge investorsaccount for a Gold ETF flows in INRbn, and total holdings in tonnes* Digital goldbuying slows,interest holds Digital gold purchases through the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) moderatedinboth value and volume termsduringMay. Transactionvaluesfell2% m/m to INR24bn (US$256mn),whileestimated volumesdeclined5% m/m to 1.54t. Althoughpurchases werewell below the January peak–down 38% in value and 41% in volume–volumes remained above the 16-month average6of 1.36t, suggesting that buying interest remainsrelativelystrongdespite the moderation.Digital gold als