国际能源署石油市场更新初步观点：紧张市场或于明年转向供应过剩

IEA Oil Market Update - Initial perspectives. A tight market couldgive way to oversupply next year The IEA has significantly deepened its bearish revision to the 2026 oil demand outlookfollowing an escalating Middle East supply shock, with demand now forecast to contract by1.1MMbls/d for the year — a 700kbd downgrade versus the May OMR. A US-Iran interimpeace deal, scheduled to be formally signed on 19 June in Switzerland, paves the way for agradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a lifting of the US naval blockade on Iranian oil,sending Brent prices down ~$40/bbl from early April highs to ~$81/bbl at the time of writing.However, operational constraints including prolonged demining and unresolved transitarrangements leave significant downside risks to any recovery timeline. Global observed Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Brian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com Kelvin Yuan, Ph.D., CFA+852 2123 2612kelvin.yuan@bernsteinsg.com The US-Iran deal may be done, but restart of supply through SOH will be protractedand messy.The interim MOU is set to be signed on 19 June, enabling reopening, butthe IEA flags risks from demining, transit uncertainties and political fragility. Full supplynormalization could slip into 1Q to 2Q 2027. Brent appears to price a faster recovery, which Global oil demand is now forecast to decline 1.1MMbls/d y/y in 2026.This is a700kbd downgrade vs. the May OMR. This reflects a a 5MMbls/d y/y plunge in 2Q26demand, the first quarterly decline since 2020. Asia and the Middle East led the drop, withChina, Korea, and Japan imports each collapsing ~40% as the Strait closure decimated Global supply is expected to decline 3.9MMbbls/d y/y in 2026 to 102.4MMbbls/d,with Middle East losses partly offset by stronger Atlantic Basin exports. TheAmericas are the swing producers, led by the US, Brazil, Canada, Argentina and Guyana. USoutput hit 22MMbbls per day in May, with exports at 5.2MMbbls per day, supported by SPR Inventory drawdowns are running at an historic pace with more to come in 2H26.Global observed stocks fell 143MMbls (-4.6MMbbls/d) in May alone, with the cumulative draw since the Gulf conflict onset averaging 3.8MMbbls/d (although this is far lower thanthe 15MMbls/d of supply loss). OECD government stocks are at their lowest since 1990as emergency releases accelerate. A 2.1MMbbls per day deficit is expected over June to 2027 is shaping up as a massive surplus year with the call on OPEC falling to a 2020low.Supply could rise by about 8MMbbls per day to 110.3MMbbls per day, versus demandgrowth of only about 2MMbbls per day. The call on OPEC may fall to around 34.9MMbblsper day, the lowest since 2020, pressuring policy cohesion. Additional supply from the restocking demand may partly offset price weakness. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS The IEA report highlights two key points. First, the re-opening of the SOH is likely to be messy and protracted. We agree. Inthe short term, the market will remain in deficit and inventories will be supportive of oil price. Second, the permanent demanddestruction and a recovery in non-OPEC supply plus UAE’s exit from OPEC has the potential to create a massive oversupplyin 2027. Although some of this will be absorbed through the re-stocking of inventories which have been depleted, the signalis potentially bearish for next year. While we expect oil price to decline meaningfully next year, we also expect marginal cost Related notes: Bernstein Energy: Let the oil flow DETAILS •Global oil demand is now expected to contract by 1.1MMbls/d for the year.2026 demand has been revised down-700kbd vs. the May OMR to 103.3MMbls/d (-1.1MMbls/d y-o-y), with OECD revised down to 45.4MMbls/d (-450kbd y-o-y)and non-OECD to 57.9MMbls/d (-670kbd y-o-y). The biggest quarterly decline is 2Q26 which is now tracking -5MMbls/d y-o-y — the first global quarterly demand contraction since 2020.Average demand is expected to recover by 2MMbls/d to •Total OPEC crude supply (M-1) is down ~11.5MMbls/d from pre-conflict levels.Total OPEC crude supply fell a further1.1MMbls/d m-o-m in May to 30.3MMbls/d, largely driven by a sharp decline in Iranian supply (-1.1MMbls/d). OPEC crudesupply is now ~11.5MMbls/d below the pre-conflict level of ~41.8MMbls/d. •US-Iran interim deal is a major inflection point, but a full supply recovery will take until 1Q–2Q27.An interimceasefire agreement was reached in mid-June with a formal signing scheduled for 19 June in Switzerland. Flows throughthe Strait of Hormuz have already rebounded from a May low of 9.6MMbls/d to ~12MMbls/d in early June. However, theIEA cautions that mines must be cleared from main shipping lanes and supply chains will take time to normalise, with a fullrecovery to pre-war export patterns unlikely before 1Q–2Q27. ADNOC's CEO confirmed that Hormuz cannot return to full Non-OPEC supply surge is insufficient to compensate for Gulf losses, but Americas become the swing producer. Total