IEA石油市场更新 - 初步观点：库存增加，OPEC逐步取消减产

The July update was incrementally negative.Global 2025 demand was revised down0.1MMb/s/d to103.7MMbls/d (+0.7MMbls/d).Non-OPEC supply was unchangedat71.6MMbls/d (+1.4MMb/s/d) for 2025but revised up by 0.2MMbls/d for2026. MayOECD commercial inventories increased 45MMbls, largely inline with our expected build of44MMbls.OurpreliminaryestimateforJuneis thatOECDcommercialinventorieswill buildby3MMb/s.For1H25,OECDcommercialinventoriesroseby41MMb/s(O.2MMb/s/d)givenan apparent global surplus of 1.3MMbls/d. Based on the current supply and demand balance,the call on OPEC supply for 2025 is 0.8MMbls/d lower than last yearGlobaloildemandwasreviseddown0.1MMbls/dto103.7MMbls/dfor2025withgrowthlargelyunchangedat+o.7MMBls/d.OECDdemand isexpectedtodeclineby 0.1MMbls/d while non-OECD demand is expected to grow 0.8MMbls/d with Chinacontributing a meager+O.1MMbls/dNon-0PEC supply was unchanged at 71.6MMbls/d for 2025 and will grow by1.4MMbls/d, which is 2x demand growth. 2025 OECD supply was unchanged at32.6MMbls/d (+0.7MMbls/d y-0-y). Non-OECD supply was also unchanged at 33.1MMbls/d (+0.6MMbls/d y-0-y). Non-OPEC supply (M-1) was 71.7MMbls/d, up 0.5MMbls/d m-0-m.The call hoPEC crude for 2025 decreased by 0.1MMbls/d to26.4MMbls/d andrdmains 0.8MMbls/d lower than 2024 which continues to imply an oversuppliedinline with the OPEC+ targeted increase of O.4MMbls/d.Total effective spare capacity (M-1) stands at 3.4MMbls/d (down from 4.3) andcapacity is estimated at 4.1MMbls/d (-1.0MMBls/d m-0-m).OEcD's industry stocks (M-2) increased by 45MMbls m-o-m. This leaves inventories at2,792MMbls which is 54MMbls lower than a year ago and 84MMbls lower than the 5-yearaverage of 2,876MMbls. Total OECD stocks represent 88 days of forward demand and 61days excluding government stocks.Global refinery throughput (M-2) was 81.7MMbls/d which was 1.1MMbls/d lowerthan a year ago. Global throughput was unchanged at 83.3MMbls/d (+0.5MMbls/d y-0-y). OECD refining utilization (M-2) was 84%, compared to 84% a year ago. 2025 growthcontinues to be dominated by regions East of Suez, with throughput growth of +200kbdand+2oOkbdexpectedfromtheMiddleEastandAfricarespectively.Nw Europe light sweet cracking and medium sour cracking margins decreased by $0.8/bbl and $3.3/bbl, respectively. For USGC, light sweet cracking and medium sour crackingmargins declined by $2.0/bbl and $2.7/bbl respectively. In Asia, light sweet and mediumwww.bernsteinresearch.com EXHIBIT1:Globaloildemandwasreviseddown0.1MMbls/dfor2025at103.7MMbls/d(+0.7MMbls/d)and2026isrevised down 0.1MMbls/d to 104.4MMbls/d (+0.7MMbls/d)Global Oil Demand Revisions (1990-2025 YTD)104102202110020208696201294201092g088Gl863499766699Source: IEA, BernsteinanalysisEXHIBIT 2: Non-0PEC supply for 2025 was unchanged at 71.6MMbls/d (+1.4MMbls/d) but 2026 was revised up0.2MMbls/d to72.6MMbls/d (+1.0MMbls/d)Non-OPEC Supply Revisions (07-25YTD)74202620257220247020232022892021202066201964C2018S2017622016201560201420138S2012562011201054200920085220075048Source: IEA, Bernstein analysisASIA-PACIFIC OIL & GASBERNSTEINSOCIETE CENERALE CROUP INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONSBrentoil prices averaged$72/bbl in1H25andcontinuestotradenear$7O reflectingafairlybalancedphysicaloil marketyearto date. While inventories built modestly in first half of 2025, oil markets are relatively well supplied based on fundamentals.WithOPEC notionallyadding 1.7MMbls/dfrom April to August (vs demand growth of O.7MMbls/d), we expect oilto trade inthe$60/bbl range in the 2H25 as inventories are expected to build through the remainder of the year. Despite the negative setupfor oil market in the near term, oil stocks are pricing in $65-70/bbl which seems reasonable to us.BERNSTEINTICKERTABLETickerRatingCur600028.CH (SinoPec)MCNY386.HK (SinoPec)MHKD883.HK (CNOOC)0HKD857.HK (PetroChina)MHKD601857.CH (PetroChina)UCNYASIAXO- Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.ASIA-PACIFIC OIL GAS 11 Jul 2025Reported EPSReported P/E (x)ClosingPriceRel.PriceTargetPerf.Cur2024A2025E2026E2024A2025E2026E5.715.40(22.1)%CNY0.400.440.4414.113.113.14.284.10(23.4)%CNY0.400.440.449.79.09.018.3222.10(30.0)%CNY2.903.112.955.85.45.77.056.70(23.8)%CNY0.900.900.887.27.27.38.657.80(28.4)%CNY0.900.900.889.69.69.81,439.23BERNSTEIN|SOCIETE CENERALE CROUPn I.REQUIREDDISCLOSURESReferences to "Bernstein" or the “Firm" in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLCC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanfordC.BernsteinJapanKK（7才一卜·C·八一夕个株式会社)On April 1, 2024, Societe Generale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America an