英特尔与苹果芯片代工合作分析

Intel (INTC): President Trump likes Apple pie... Late last night President Trump “truthed” out (among other things) that Apple has“agreed to work with Intel to design and build its Chips in America.”The news isnot exactly new (market speculation of a potential Intel-Apple foundry tie-up has beenreported for the last several months in fact) but the message from Trump is confirmatory,and probably as official as things are ever going to be these days. The news also followsIntel’s announcement from earlier this week that their 18A-P process has entered riskproduction (so the timing potentially fits). Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com We suspect any early foundry relationship would likely be low-volume, less-important parts (market speculation has centered on low-end PC chips forexample).While we have no particular verification as to which specific products might befirst this feels like the right kind product to start with (relatively low volume, low risk, andeasy enough to move back to alternative suppliers if needed). Intel will of course have toprove their mettle before being granted more substantial wins, but the first step is alwaysthe hardest, so at least they appear to be taking that step. Likely limited upside initially (probably more proof of concept than anything else).Apple ships ~25M PCs annually (with ~1-2M low end devices shipped over the last year(most in the last quarter as the Neo launched) (Exhibit 1). Even if Intel were to get, say,40% of Apple’s PC volume (10M units?) some rough math suggests fairly limited initialupside, perhaps a few hundred million dollars in revenue and a few pennies in EPS (nottaking into account increased capex needs etc) (Exhibit 2) so we wouldn’t expect an intalApple foundry win to move the needle; this is probably more proof of concept than anythingelse at this point (though of course there is nothing wrong with that as proof of concept is anecessary step). Is Trump “forcing” customers on Intel?We hear this a lot; we are sure there isencouragement but we don’t think he can “force” customers to use them, nor does hereally need to in our opinion. Our view has been that no “forcing” is really necessary ascustomers never like to be sole-sourced on anything, and of course would like alternativesin their advanced manufacturing supply chain. If Intel can prove that they can make parts,in high volume, that meet spec, at a good cost structure, and are available when expected(i.e., table-stakes for a foundry) then we are sure they will have customers lined up aroundthe block (and if they can’t prove these things no customer in their right mind will putany meaningful volume there). And the current capacity crunch is probably emboldeningcustomers to give Intel a harder look at this stage than perhaps they might ordinarily beinclined to do as the prospect of more advanced capacity will take on higher value in aconstrained environment. We are sure that Trump’s encouragement is at least not going tohurt though. At the moment there is still a lot of wood to chop here(the move from proof of conceptto material volume remains uncertain and will take considerable time, as well as likelyconsiderable additional capex). But a first step is a first step, and this may be the first realstep we have seen on this front. We make no changes to our model at this time. We rate Intel Market-Perform, $100 PT. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS INTC (Market-Perform, $100):Server strength is helping the company get back on their feet, and narrative/headlines mayfuel the vibe for now. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Intel Corp For INTC, we assign a ~8x EV multiple to the average of our FY27/FY28 sales estimate (~$66.1B) to arrive at a price target of$100. RISKS Intel Corp Upside risk to our price target on INTC includes greater than ex