英西特患者进展已取得但尚未实现营收增长-伯恩斯坦

RatingMarket-PerformPrice TargetINCY 99.00 USD Incyte: Progress made for patients, but not yet for revenuegrowth post-Jakafi LOE We sharpen our answer for INCY to reflect data disclosures, Vega acquisiiton andINCA033989 2L ET Ph3 clinical trials.gov posting. However, we land on the samerecommendation: investors should pass on INCY for now until there is a clear pathway forrevenue growth after Jakafi LOE in 2028. Jakafi has been the key driver of Incyte’s growthand accounted for 60% of FY’25 total revenue. We are generally in line with consensus foroverall revenue trajectory: Steady decline of peak risk-adjusted sales ($6.5B, FY’28) to $4.6Bin FY’40. Incyte’s life cycle management (LCM) to replace Jakafi revenue is encouraging- particularly Monjuvi - however, taken together these efforts do not appear sufficient fora return to growth. In our view, early-stage INCA033989 (potential first-in-class mutantcalreticulin mAb) is the best hope to spark a growth story pending the outcome of announcedfuture registrational trials in both Essential thrombocythemia (ET) and Myelofibrosis (MF). Investment Implications We reiterate INCY rating of Market-Perform with PT $99 based on our DCF valuation. DETAILS Key messages 1. Incyte revenue growth is attributed to Jakafi: The party (and growth) is set to end with LOE in 2028 2. LCM efforts are encouraging, however we are swiping left: There is no line of ‘cyte to revenue growth 3. Early-stage INCA033989 is the best hope for a makeover: We need to see profile pics (and trial designs) before we swiperight COMPANY OVERVIEW: Incyte is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapeutics.Incyte operates in two therapeutic areas. One therapeutic area is Hematology/Oncology, which consists of MyeloproliferativeNeoplasms (MPNs), Graft-versus-Host Disease (GvHD) as well as solid tumors and hematologic malignancies. The other The hematology and oncology franchise consists of five approved products namely Jakafi (ruxolitinibl), Monjuvi (tafasitamab-cxix)/Minjuvi (tafasitamab), Niktimvo (axatilimab), Pemazyre (pemigatinib), Iclusig (ponatinib), and Zynyz (retifanlimab-dlwr) aswell as numerous clinical development programs. In the Inflammation and Autoimmune franchise, Incyte has one approved Incyte is also eligible to receive milestones and royalties on molecules discovered by the company and licensed to third parties.These include Olumiant (baricitinib), which is licensed to its collaborative partner Eli Lilly (covered by Courtney Breen), and Jakavi Incyte reported a total revenue of $5.1Bn in FY25 at a CAGR of 17% (21% YoY) over 2021. We project Incyte’s risk-adjusted peak sales to reach $6.5B in 2028 (Jakafi’s LOE). However, a steady decline commences through thesubsequent decade until revenues bottom out at $4.6B in 2040 (Exhibit 1). In 2025, Jakafi contributed about 60% ($3.1Bn) to Incyte’s total revenue, followed by Opzelura 13% and other products such asIclusig, Pemazyre, Monjuvi, Niktimvo and Zynyz ~11%. The remaining 12% of the company's revenue was generated by productroyalties and 3% by milestone and contract revenues (Exhibit 2). Incyte’s biggest challenge in near future is Jakafi’s LOE in 2028. Currently, we have no line of sight to revenuegrowth post-Jakafi LOE despite life cycle management (LCM) of marketed drugs andpipeline development. Incyte’s marketed drugs excluding Jakafi includes all FDA-approved marketed products namely Opzelura (ruxolitinib) cream,Monjuvi (tafasitamabcxix)/Minjuvi (tafasitamab), Niktimvo (axatilimab), Pemazyre (pemigatinib), Iclusig (ponatinib), and Zynyz(retifanlimab-dlwr). They reported a robust growth of +53% YoY to generate a revenue of $1.26Bn in 2025. Incyte is conductingphase 3 trials of Opzelura in mild-moderate Hidradenitis suppurativa (HS), Niktimvo in first line graft-versus-host disease(GvHD) and Monjuvi in first line Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). Also, Incyte is conducting key phase 3 trials on newmolecules namely povorcitinib, INCB123667, INCB161734, INCA033989, INCA33890 and newly acquired VGA039. We INCYTE REVENUE GROWTH IS ATTRIBUTED TO JAKAFI: THE PARTY (AND GROWTH) IS SET TO ENDWITH LOE IN 2028 STRONG DEMAND DRIVES JAKAFI GROWTH ACROSS ALL INDICATIONS, CONTRIBUTED 60% ($3.1BN)TO THETOTAL PRODUCT SALES IN 2025, ITS PATENT EXPIRY IN 2028 IS THE GREATEST CHALLENGE FOR INCYTE. Jakafi (ruxolitinib) is a prescription oral medication used to treat specific blood cancers and immune-related conditions, suchas myelofibrosis (MF), polycythemia vera (PV), and graft-versus-host disease (GvHD). As a JAK inhibitor, it works by blockingenzymes (JAK1 and JAK2) that cause overactive, unhealthy blood cell production or GvHD symptoms. Jakafi has been a hugesuccess for Incyte and is the key revenue driver of Incyte since its launch in 2012. It contributed 60% to the total product sales On May1, 2026, FDA approved Jakafi XR (extended release tablet) for the tre