追踪轮胎进口数据：四月欧盟从中国进口降幅达50%

Global | Autos & Auto Parts Tracking Tyre Imports | April Data | EU Importsfrom China -50% in March FLASH NOTE Europe is seeing a material slowdown in imports at -17% in March vs sell-in+3% (20% delta Figure 4). Within this Chinese imports were -50%. We trackthis as imports have taken significant share over the last 12+ months whichwe measure % growth in imports vs % growth in the market. Falling imports Data is to March for Europe and April for the US. Comparing imports to market growth.We compare monthly tyres import growth with marketdata for Europe and the US. This provides a measure of how imports are performing relativeto the market. Sell in figures represent a market mix of 80% replacement and 20% originalequipment. In Figure 1 we show standard imports into the US (ie <18inch tyres) versus market Michael Aspinall * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 20 7029 8431 | maspinall@jefferies.comPhilippe Houchois ^ | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8983 | philippe.houchois@jefferies.comVanessa Jeffriess * | Equity Analyst44 (0)20 7548 4123 | vjeffriess@jefferies.comOwen Paterson * | Equity Analyst+44 (0)20 7548 4745 | opaterson@jefferies.comKiara Asinobi * | Equity Associate+44 (0)20 7548 4542 | kasinobi@jefferies.com Figure 6 - Local European production couldincrease by 10% if imports fall 25% We capture this metric in the spread between the growth rates.We summarise the spreadbetween imports and market growth to a single number to track over time. For US standardtyres, imports grew ahead of the market through 2023, but were below the market in 2024,implying local production took share. More recently, import growth has largely tracked market This impact would come in 2H26 & '27 given thevalue chain lags US high value seeing higher imports growth. The import-to-market growth spread remainedsteady at +6% from March to April, indicating a return to import outperformance. Thelargest source of imports in >18 inch is Mexico (c20%), Thailand (c20%) and Japan/Vietnam/ European imports fell below market growth again in March. The spread dropping to -20%following February at -27%. This was made up of imports -17% and market growth of +3%%.The decline is largely reflective of a smaller drop off in imports in March (-17%) vs January &February (c25%). We expect a definitive ruling on anti dumping tomorrow (18th June) which China driving weakness in European importsOver the past two years, China-sourced importshave grown materially with a sharp acceleration through late-2024. In March, China imports The Year for Local Production to Take Back Share?EU antidumping tariffs on imports ofChinese car tyres could be c30-50% from Jun '26. This is already driving a reduction in Chinese(-50%) & Total (-17%) imports in March. If EU imports fall -25%, this would require a +10%increase in local production & a c10pp recovery in market share back to historical levels. This Company Description Continental Continental is pure play conveyor belts, and passenger and commercial vehicle tires. In 2025, Continental is expected to generate c€20bn inrevenue through Tyre and ContiTech. Geographically, Continental’s business is concentrated in Europe, with ~50% revenue contribution from the Michelin Michelin is a leading global manufacturer of passenger and commercial vehicle tires. In 2022, ML generated €28.6bn in revenues from PC andLT tires, truck tires and specialty business. It was founded in 1863 and is headquartered in Clermont-Ferrand, France. PirelliPirelli is a leading global manufacturer of passenger vehicle tires with a focus on premium, prestige and motorsports. In 2024, Pirelli generated €6.8bn in revenues at an EBIT margin of 15.7%. It was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Milan, Italy. Company Valuation/Risks ContinentalOur multiple-based price target of €75 equates to 10x '26E EBIT. In addition to this, we add recovered earnings to the ContiTech sale price. Risks include limited content growth due to legacy portfolio and sharper decline in tire margins. MichelinOur multiple-based price target of €35 equates to '27E EV/EBIT of 10x. Risks include input cost inflation, a return of low-cost imports in North America/Europe, and value-destructive M&A. PirelliOur multiple-based €6.60 PT equates to '26E EV/EBIT of 8.0x. Risks include weaker/stronger growth for >18” tires, competitive net pricing, and Analyst Certification:I, Michael Aspinall, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or I, Philippe Houchois, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the speci