中国香港消费者研究：2026年5月中国零售销售疲软依旧

China/Hong Kong Consumer| Asia Pacific Lillian LouEquity AnalystLillian.Lou@morganstanley.com China Retail Sales – May 2026:Weakness Remains Dustin WeiEquity AnalystDustin.Wei@morganstanley.com Hildy LingEquity AnalystHildy.Ling@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7834 China retail sales down 0.6% YoY in May (3.2% CAGR vs. 2019),below -0.2% consensus and +0.2% in Apr 26, the first declinepost Covid. Major categories' growth slowing, while online retailsales picked up. For June, consumer sentiment during Dragon Terence Cheng Equity AnalystTerence.Cheng@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-2873 Jenny TingResearch AssociateJenny.Ting@morganstanley.com YoY trend by category (reported YoY, with rebasing among categories):Furtherdeceleration from retail sales of goods at -0.7% yoy in May vs. -0.1% in Apr, andrestaurants showed a larger slowdown to 0.6% from 2.2% in Apr, partly dragged by Jenny YuResearch Associate +852 3963-1925 Carlos Liu, CFAResearch Associate •Among all categories, soft drink and apparel recorded growth yoy (+6.1% and+3.8%, respectively) with improvements vs. last month (+3.6% and +3.6%, •Most staples categories slowed, F&B growth further decelerated to 2.8%from 5.4% in Apr, of which soft drinks was the only category with growth China/Hong Kong Consumer Asia PacificIndustry View Read Also: •Discretionary categories generally stayed weaker than staples with a fewcategories’ declines narrowed: Gold & Jewelry decline narrowed to -8.9% vs. -21.3% yoy in Apr. Electronics & Appliances remained weak at -15.6% yoy (- Investor Presentation: China Consumer: Whereis consumption trending now? (1 Jun 2026)Haidilao International Holding Ltd: May 2026Operational Update (10 Jun 2026)China Beauty: 6.18 Pre-sale Rankings: Proya No.1,Giant Biogene Positive Surprise, MGP Gains (29 Compared with 2019 on a CAGR basis, overall momentum picked up to 3.2% from2.9% in Apr, with most categories posting improved growth. Restaurants & Dining Stock implications:Consumption recovery path could be gradual and bumpy, in ourview, and our latest consumer survey shows that sentiment has mildly improved,though our caution remains. Our focus remains on: 1) supply recalibration anddemand improvement: Mengniu (2319.HK), Yili (600887.SS); 2) improvement inoffline consumption: Haidilao (6862.HK), CRB (0291.HK) and 3) company-specific Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Key Charts Exhibit 2:We note rebasing adjustments for some categories. We summarize the differences between reported YoY growth rates(with rebase) and YoY growth rates based on previously reported absolute amounts in 2024 & 2025 (without rebase). Source: CEIC, NBS, Morgan Stanley Research Source: CEIC, NBS, Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure SectionThe information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited (which accepts the responsibility for its contents) and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte. (Registration number 199206298Z) and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Securities Pte Ltd (Registration number 200008434H), regulated by the MonetaryAuthority of Singapore (which accepts legal responsibility for its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, Morgan Stanley Research),and/or Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited and/or Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Seoul Branch, and/or Morgan Stanley Australia Limited (A.B.N. 67 003 734 576, holder of Australian financialservices license No. 233742, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Australia Pty Ltd (A.B.N. 19 009 145 555, holder of Australian financialservices license No. 240813, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited having Corporate Identification No (CIN)U22990MH1998PTC115305, regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”) and holder of licenses as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH000001105); Stock Broker(SEBI Stock Broker Registration No. INZ000244438), Merchant Banker (SEBI Registration No. INM000011203), and depository participant with National Securities Depository Limited (SEBI For important disclosures, stock price charts and equity rating histories regarding companies that are the subject of this repo