更新存储模型：MSD增长持续

Updated Storage Model – MSDGrowth Sustained We update our detailed storage model that includes splits forHardware,Software,and Maintenance/Services, as well asAFA breakouts. We still see MSD growth on average acrossCY26-27, driven by an enterprise momentum and ASPincreasesoffsettingpotential memory-driven unit cuts. IT Hardware and CommunicationsEquipmentNEUTRAL IT Hardware and CommunicationsEquipmentTim Long+1 212 526 4043tim.long@barclays.comBCI, US Alyssa Shreves+1 212 526 7570alyssa.shreves@barclays.comBCI, US THE EXTEL SURVEY IS CLOSING SOON Support our industry-leadinganalysts with 5-Star votes inthe 2026 Extel All-AmericaResearch Survey. Mary Lenox+1 212 526 6277mary.lenox@barclays.comBCI, US Clarisse Yu+1 212 526 7025clarisse.yu@barclays.comBCI, US View Analysts Following recent results and industry conversations, we move our storage estimates for CY26-27slightly higher. Product GMs came in slightly higher than expected for NTAP, though in line withP this past earnings cycle, with the expectation for both to see continued GM improvementthrough their respective FY. We continue to believe demand destruction (in dollar terms) willremain minimal with GMs largelyunaffectedin the medium-to-longer term, given the pricingactions flowing through the business. We believe NTAP's product GM guidance for trough levelsnext Q (followed by improvement through FY) and P's guidance for gradual GM improvementthrough the year are more a function of the industry's dramatic commodity pricing moves andthe companies' possible repricing lags hitting the models vs anything fundamental with eitherbusiness. Storage continues to be resilient, though does not seem to be seeing any pull-through fromtraditional servers. We do believe ASP (both NTAP and P began raising prices at the beginning ofthe year) is driving the majority of the move higher in estimates, along with some customer pull- Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 6.Completed: 10-Jun-26, 20:10 GMTReleased: 11-Jun-26, 04:10 GMTRestricted - External in. However, we do expect a reversion to MSD in CY27 (from HSD growth in CY26), as we expectsome AI-related build-out benefits to begin hitting models when the industry moves materiallyto the enterprise and inferencing phase of AI. Overall Storage Market Takeaways Despite rising NAND prices and Street concerns around demand destruction, recent results fromNTAP and P, as well as commentary from DELL and HPE, generally point to stable results withnear-term strength potentially driven by pull-ins (customer concerns around future pricingactions). We move our estimates higher though expect the storage market to grow ~6% on average overCY26-27 (vs prior estimate ~5%). Although the market has already seen two previous years ofstrong growth, we believe MSD growth moving into CY27 is sustainable due to AI-relatedbuildouts called out by companies this past year as a driver, as well as the beginning of theinferencing phase of AI. Market share moves remain limited, as the installed base seems sticky. •We expect the total storage market to grow at a CAGR of 8% from 2022 through 2027 (5% ex-•white box), up from 5% and 4% prior estimates, respectively. Within this, we estimate Hardware will grow 5% ex WB/8% total (up from 4% ex WB/5% total),MaintenanceSoftware/Serviceswill grow 4% (up from 3%), andSoftware/SaaSwill grow 17%(up from 16%) – primarily due to continued SaaS growth seen by players. •We continue to estimateSoftware/SaaSrevenues will remain a small part of the overall•market (~5% of the market, unchanged from our previous model) in 2026-27 vs ~2% in 2018.However, we acknowledge the upward improvement inSoftware/SaaSrevenues as % of theoverall market moving from 2024-2027. •We expect AFA to grow at a CAGR of 11% (up from 10% prior estimate), although we expect•Disc/Hybrid to now grow at a CAGR of 6% (vs prior estimate of 3%) from 2022-2027, whichcontinues to align with our view that AFA should continue to grow faster than Disc, given itspowerefficienciesand narrowing cost gap. However, we acknowledge rising prices may slowAFA transition. •Storage revenue continues to not correlate to Server and DC Switching revenue growth•trends, with pull-through in AI-related revenue growth still on the horizon. We expect only an8% CAGR for the storage market from 2022-2027, whereas for the Server market we expect a46% CAGR, and DC Switching market a 28% CAGR in the same time period. We view this as asign that external storage is, for the most part, not participating in AI builds, yet. The storage market has been lumpy over the past f