驱动新经济增长的四种未来图景：2035年的能源与竞争力

W H I T EP A P E R Images:Getty Images Contents Executive summary 1Introduction2Four futures for powering growth in 20353Implications for businesses4How businesses can prepare today for any scenarioContributorsEndnotes Disclaimer This document is published by theWorld Economic Forum as a contributionto a project, insight area or interaction.The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed herein are a resultof a collaborative process facilitated and ©2026 World Economic Forum. All rightsreserved. No part of this publication maybe reproduced or transmitted in any formor by any means, including photocopying Executive summary Powering growth and competitivenessin the new economy requires agility, Intensifying geoeconomic competition, rapidtechnological change and a shifting energylandscape are reshaping growth models, These intersecting transformations introduce a highdegree of uncertainty. Energy systems continueto evolve unevenly across regions and sectors,creating divergent conditions for growth, investmentand competitiveness. This variability translates 2Fragmented Advantage:Energy systemsremain functional, but clean technology,minerals, finance, standards and marketsbecome politicized and restricted. Alliancesdevelop divergent techno-industrial structuresand competitiveness profiles, raising barriersto energy-related trade across blocs, while Amid rising uncertainty, foresight becomes astrategic imperative, enabling leaders to stress-testassumptions, anticipate disruption, manage risk andact early on the opportunities that will define long- Turning uncertainty into foresight 3Clean Pivot: Multiple crises destabilize legacyenergy systems, raise costs and compressinvestment and transition timelines. Cleanenergy scales, but affordability and reliabilityimprove only where finance, grids, skills andinstitutions can deliver. Growth weakensbefore recovering selectively, as thoseeconomies that are well-equipped convert The World Economic Forum’s Scenarios for theGlobal Economy Dialogue Series uses scenarioanalysis and cross-industry dialogue to help This is the third topic in the series and explores howthe interplay between legacy energy system stabilityand access to clean energy could shape growth andcompetitiveness in 2035 and underpin corporatestrategies and investment decisions. This white 4Efficiency Imperative: Growth stalls asfragile legacy systems and restricted cleanalternatives make energy scarcity a bindingeconomic constraint. Security and affordabilitydeteriorate and trade contracts, especially inenergy-intensive sectors. Competitiveness Four scenarios forpowering growth in 2035 The interaction of legacy and emerging energysystems generates four alternative futures, eachwith distinct implications for long-term growth and Strategies for the future –Ensure financial and strategic adaptability–Secure access to critical technologiesand talent–Develop regional strategies for an uneven –Build supply-chain optionality Introduction The evolving interplay between conventionaland clean energy systems is redefining how Trade tensions,shifting alliancesand supply chainsecuritization are The scale of this shift is significant. Electricitydemand from data centres is expected to morethan double from 2025 levels, potentially reaching950 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030.2Thesenew demand centres will test grid capacity, Growth in the global economy is being shaped bygeoeconomic competition, industrial policy andcontrol over the inputs that determine productivecapacity. Trade tensions, shifting alliances and This transition is unfolding against a backdrop ofsubdued economic momentum. The InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF) projects global growthof 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, remainingbelow pre-COVID-19 pandemic averages.1Atthe same time, elevated commodity prices, The World Economic Forum’s latest ExecutiveOpinion Survey identifies high energy andcommodity costs as the most consistent constrainton growth, ranking among the top three barriersin 73 of 118 countries (Figure 1).3It is particularlyacute in Northern America and Oceania, andremains a top three constraint across much ofEurope, the Middle East and North Africa, and Energy is a foundational determinant of productivecapacity and competitiveness. The industriesexpected to drive growth over the next decade,including artificial intelligence (AI), advancedmanufacturing, electrified transport and low- These dynamics are also reshaping the geographyof trade and industry. The World Trade Organization(WTO) notes growing trade sensitivity to tariffs,policy uncertainty and energy-related shocks, withmerchandise trade growth expected to slow to 1.9% Growth willdepend not only onthe availability ofcritical inputs, buton how effectively Labour markets also adjust as technologicalchange, geoeconomic fragmentation,demographic shifts and the green transitionreshape them.7The implication is a morecomplex growth model in which competitiveness Th