赋能爱尔兰能源未来：迈向2035年以可再生能源为主导的安全电力系统的方法

Powering Ireland’sEnergy Future Approaches for a secure, renewables-ledelectricity system to 2035 INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY The IEA examines the fullspectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement and muchmore. Through its work,the IEA advocatespolicies that will enhancethe reliability,affordability andsustainability of energyin its32Member countries,13Association countriesand beyond. IEAAssociationcountries: IEAMembercountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine This publication and any mapincluded herein are withoutprejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers andboundaries and to the nameof any territory, city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Abstract Ireland has emerged as a frontrunner in integrating wind power, which suppliedaround a third of its electricity in 2024. As this power system transformationcontinues, electricity is set to be the backbone for achieving Ireland’s climate,energyand socio-economic ambitions,making electricity security critical torealising progress in key areas including housing, digital infrastructure, transportand heat. Going forward, Ireland faces strategic choices on how to align itsambitions while ensuring secure electricity supply to 2035. This report assesses the outlook for Ireland’s energy security to 2035, drawing oninternational experience and detailed power system modelling developed withEirGrid, Ireland’s transmission system operator. The Adapted Transition Pathwayillustrateshow climate,energy and socio-economic goals align around theelectricity system, potentially doubling demand and requiring faster infrastructuredelivery and deployment of renewables. We find that there is a clear need toestablish a unified cross-sectoral energy strategy to set a vision that guides thistransition, supported by a detailed security study on the electricity supply mix. The analysis sets out five pillars for policy action: Establishing a cross-sectoralenergy security strategy for the 2030s; delivering the enabling infrastructure toaccommodate the growth of electricity demand and supply; accelerating thedelivery of generation capacity, storage and demand-side flexibility; enablingsecure system operation under high renewable penetration; advancing workforceskills, strengthening partnerships and facilitating electrification. Ireland can buildon its progress in power system transformation to set an example of secureintegration of large shares of variable renewable generation while safeguardingenergy security. Acknowledgements, contributorsand credits This study was prepared by the Renewable Integration and Secure Electricity Unit(RISE) in the Directorate of Energy Markets and Security (EMS) in co‐operationwith the Renewable Energy Division (RED) and other directorates and offices ofthe International Energy Agency (IEA). The study was led and co-ordinated byJavier Jorquera Copier under the guidance of Pablo Hevia-Koch, Head of RISE.Power system modelling for the report was led by Edward McDonald. The main authors of this study are (in alphabetical order) Elisa Asmelash, FrançoisBriens (former IEA analyst), Javier Jorquera Copier, Edward McDonald, Floris vanDedem and Jacques Warichet. Key contributions were from Gyuri Cho, ShaneMcDonagh, Jack Gregory, Ilkka Hannula, Reine McEben-Nornormey (former IEAintern) and Isaac Portugal Rosas. Other contributions from across the agencywere from Lena Brun, Ethan Burkley and John Fennelly (former IEA intern). Eleni Karanikola and Hyejeong Lee provided essential support. Kristine Douaud carried editorial responsibility. Several colleagues across the IEA provided valuable input to this study, includingVasilios Anatolitis-Pelka, Esra Bozkir Broekman, Eren Çam, Elizabeth Connelly,JulieDallard,Insa Handschuch,Grace Henry,Hugh Hopewell,MathildeHuismans, Rena Kuwahata, Oskar Kvarnström (former IEA analyst), CuauhtémocLópez-Bassols, Augustin Lorne, Akos Losz, Chris Matthew, Kieran McNamara,John Moloney, Vera O’Riordan, Apostolos Petropoulos, Brendan Reidenbach,Alessio Scanziani, Siddharth Singh, Thomas Spencer, Ottavia Valentini andPeerapat Vithayasrichareon. Keisuke Sadamori, Director of the Energy Markets and Security Directorateprovided valuable feedback and overall guidance. Paolo Frankl, Head of theRenewable Energy Division, provided strategic guidance and contributed to keymessaging.Valuable feedback was provided by other members