中国GLP-1：ADA更新巩固850亿元总可市场容量

China GLP-1: ADA updates reinforce a CNY85 Bn TAM At ADA, newer GLP-1 entrants like BrightGene (not covered) hover at the 16%weight loss bar and do not differentiate in weight loss efficacy from China leadersInnovent, Hengrui, and Hansoh.We still see these three as the only serious contendersso far. Hengrui’s partner Kailera (not covered) reported the first ex-China clinical data forHRS-9531 (ribupatide) injection. 5.1% placebo-adjusted weight loss at 4 weeks was apositive and supportive result of the earlier China-based data and helped the start of theglobal Phase 3 KaiNETIC program Rebecca Liang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2656rebecca.liang@bernsteinsg.com Ellie Li+852 2123 2621ellie.li@bernsteinsg.com In oral GLP-1s, Innovent’s IBI3032was a key highlight and the most differentiatedamong China-based programs. The small molecule delivered4-week placebo-adjustedweight loss of 8.6% in its first-in-human Ph1. This is one of the most potent early-phaseoral readouts globally (best orals approved today give 8-11% weight loss at 60-70 weeks).While durability, safety, and dose optimization remain open points, the early efficacy signalgives us confidence thatInnovent could get a meaningful share of the global oralGLP-1 space post 2030 (consensus peak sales - orforglipron $31 Bn, Wegovy pill $9Bn). Innovent’smazdutidealso continues to differentiate beyond efficacy, particularly intheunderpenetrated juvenile obesity segment, where it is emerging as a front-runner in China. Pediatric obesity population (>30Mn individuals) remains largelyuntreated pharmacologically, and even a low ~3–5% penetration implies a 1–2mn patientopportunity. We see meaningful first-mover advantage for Innovent. We incorporate recent price changes from January–June 2026 torecalibrate our ChinaGLP-1 model, lowering our 2030E obesity pricing assumption to ~CNY270 per month(from ~CNY430 previously) and embedding a steady-state level of ~CNY200, reflectingfaster-than-expected competitive price erosion. Offsetting this, we expand both theaddressable population and penetration curve: we now include not only obese patients(BMI >28) but also overweight patients (24