亚太地区中国房地产：二手房销售疲软迹象增多

More Signs of Secondary HomeSales Weakening Cara ZhuEquity AnalystCara.Zhu@morganstanley.com Key Takeaways 25-city secondary real-time home sales softened to 9.2% y-y MTD as of June 10(vs. 30% in April, 26% in May) despite a lower base from Dragon Boat holiday. China PropertyAsia PacificIndustry ViewIn-Line Low-tier 2 cities (Nanchang, Foshan, Nantong, Dongguan, Ningbo, Xi'an) saw fastdeceleration and select cities (Tianjin, Changsha, Chengdu) turned negative y-y. Related reports: Cities with policy easing in late April saw divergence - Suzhou/Wuhan remainedrobust, while Guangzhou/Shenzhen/Foshan decelerated by double-digit ppts. 1. An Inflection or Another False Start? (18 May2026)2. Diverging Home Price Trends Continued inMay (2 June 2026)3. Managed Housing Downcycle to Last AnotherTwo Years (25 January 2026)4. 2026 Outlook: Physical Market StaysChallenging; Diverging Outperformance ofAlpha Plays (10 December 2025) This is consistent with our call for milder y-y in June, with potential to turnnegative y-y in 3Q amid diminishing policy effects and pent-up demand... … leading to a broadly soft m-m home price downtrend in 2026–27, thoughselect Tier 1 cities may see a mild uptrend due to better destocking progress. Stay selective:In our recent insight report - An Inflection or Another False Start? -we emphasized that the unexpected rebound in secondary home sales in March-April may have been due to the release of pent-up demand from 4Q25 on the backof HPR/HPF mortgage easing and less-panicky resident sentiment. With increasinguncertainty around sales sustainability, we still see industry risk/reward skewing tothe downside despite an 18% share price pullback since mid-May (vs. HSI -8%). We suggest closely monitoring sales volumes, home prices, secondary listingvolumes, transaction mixes, and rental rates in June-August to assess whether amarket inflection is forming. We stay prudent, and continue to recommend stickingto beneficiaries with both industry beta and self-help alpha.CR Land (1109.HK)remains our Top Pick, followed byC&D (1908.HK), as both offer solid EPS outlooks,attractive dividend yields, and medium-term re-rating potential even absent notablerecovery in the physical market. Exhibit 2:Chinese New Year-adjustedcumulative secondary real-time homesales fell ~1% y-y in those cities Exhibit 1:Bingshan 25-city secondaryreal-time home sales continued todecelerate, to +9% y-y in MTD June Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Valuation Methodology and Risks China Resources Land Ltd. (1109.HK) Our HK$60.88/share 2026e NAV comprises HK$15.62 of development properties (DCF, 8.0%WACC), HK$55.22 of investment properties (cap rate 5-8%) and HK$9.96 of net debt. To thiswe apply a 30% discount based on our developers' scorecard, comprising landbank (with a8/10 score), execution (8), scale (9), growth (8), profitability (8), financing (10) and leverage(10). We use 30-45% discounts in our coverage. Risks to Upside nStronger-than-expected contracted sales.nAccelerated openings of new malls. Risks to Downside nWeaker-than-expected contracted sales.nSlower-than-expected openings of new shopping malls. C&D International Investment Group Ltd (1908.HK) Our HK$32.59/share 2026e NAV comprises HK$25.65/share of development properties (DCF,8.2% WACC), HK$1.14/share of other business and HK$5.79/share of net cash. To this we applya 35% discount based on our developers' scorecard, comprising landbank (with a 8/10 score),execution (8), scale (8), growth (8), profitability (7), financing (9), and leverage (8). We use30-45% discounts in our coverage. Risks to Upside nStronger-than-expected contracted sales.nStronger-than-expected gross margin. Risks to Downside nWeaker-than-expected gross margin.nSlower-than-expected land acquisitions. Disclosure Section The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited (which accepts the responsibility for its contents) and/or MorganStanley Asia (Singapore) Pte. (Registration number 199206298Z) and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Securities Pte Ltd (Registration number 200008434H), regulated by the MonetaryAuthority of Singapore (which accepts legal responsibility for its contents and should