亚马逊Leo接近可行性：网络成本及机遇评估

Amazon Leonearing feasibility; A reviewof network costs and opportunity Reiterate Rating:BUY| PO:310.00 USD| Price:270.64 USD Amazon Leoapproaching operational tipping pointLeois a top long-term Amazon investment initiative that is on the cusp of generating 01 June 2026 revenues. Satellite launches have accelerated in 2Q and we expect greater investorinterest in the project going forward. In this report, we refresh our views on: 1) Networkbuild costs and near-term expense impact, 2) The Amazon Leo business opportunity,potential synergies with Amazon, and competitive landscape, 3) revenue potential andsubscriber breakeven level assuming a 5-year satellite replacement cycle, and 4)potential valuation embedded in Amazon’s stock. Equity Justin PostResearch AnalystBofAS+1 415 676 3547justin.post@bofa.com Harvey QinResearch AnalystBofAS+1 917 864 5179huiyu.qin@bofa.com Deployment accelerating in 2Q, expect capitalization in 4QAmazonhas stepped up its launch cadence with 3 launches already in 2Q, and over 300 satellites in space as of mid-May. We expect an accelerated launch rate from here (4total launches in 2Q, does not include a Blue Origin launch), with 17 total in 2026 withmore in 2027. Using various public industry ests., and not including consumerequipment costs, we est. Amazon could spend ~$25bn to build its initial constellationthrough 2028. Near term, we est. $1.3bn in direct I/S expense in 2Q, growing to $1.6bnin 3Q, and then a q/q decline in 4Q as capitalization of production & launch costs begins. Momentum on the Enterprise side is accelerating While monthly consumer subscription revenues are a core business case for Leo,enterprise, government and mobileD2D revenues could exceed consumer subscriptionrevenues. Amazon has secured a number of high-profile deals withenterprise/government customers, including Delta, US DoD, Airbus, & Apple. For Mobile(D2D), Amazon recently announced the acquisition of Globalstar, and has indicated plansto begin mobile satellite deployments in 2028. A big opportunity, andstrategically important as wellIn our view, based on conservative market assumptions, and assuming Amazon has a 25% consumer market share, we see a $14bn 2032 consumer broadband rev. potentialfor Amazon. Also, enterprise/gov. revenues could match or exceed retail, D2D mobilerevenues could ramp in 2028, and we expect Leo to have synergies with AWS andAmazon’s logistic network. Overall, we see potentially positive return on investment (seepages 12-13), and opportunity for strong long-term margins given high start-up costmoats. Reiterate Buy. LEO: Low Earth OrbitDoD: Department of DefenseITU: International TelecommunicationUnionD2D: Direct to DeviceAWS: Amazon Web Services BofA Securities does and seeks to dobusiness with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 16 to 18. Analyst Certification on page 14. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 14.12979632 iQprofileSMAmazon.com Company SectorInternet/e-Commerce Company Description Amazon.com is one of the world's largest online retailerswith a global brand and country specific sites in the U.S.,UK, Germany, France, Japan, Canada, China, Spain, Italy,Mexico and India. Amazon also ownsseveral other onlineretailers and online properties including Zappos.com,Diapers.com, Woot.com, Twitch.com and others. Amazonalso operates Amazon Web Services (AWS), a leading cloud-based computing platform for developers and enterprises,and Whole Foods Markets. Investment Rationale Amazon is an eCommerce and cloud computing marketshare leader that operates a leading fulfilment network anddata center footprint. Given strong assets and customerfocus, we think Amazon is well positioned tocapitalize onthe global growth of eCommerce and enterprise demandfor AI capacity. Stock Data Average Daily Volume43,374,608 Amazon Leo Overview Amazon initiated Amazon Leo (previously Project Kuiper) in 2018 to provide broadbandinternet via thousands of Low Earth Orbit satellites (LEO, an area of space that extendsto up to 2,000kms above Earth). Leo is a big investment initiative for Amazon (that hasendured despite ongoing cost cutting since 2022), and there are‘thousands’ofemployees currently working on the project, including engineers, programmers, andsupport personnel etc. Amazon plans to introduce 3 tiers of internet service andterminals: an ultra-compact model with speed of up to 100Mbps, a standard model thatdelivers speed up to 400Mbps, and the largest model (for enterprise and government)could deliver up to 1Gbps speed. We think the Street was somewhat skeptical on theproject and investment spend, but competitor subscriber growth has improvedsentiment. Exhibit1:Satellite deployment started in 2Q’25Each rocket