日本小型大容量MLCC需求将持续扩张

Shoji SatoEquity Analyst Shoji.Sato@morgansnleymufq.com+81 3 6836-8404SotaHarashima Apr Capacitor Output (METD:Expect Continuing Expansion ofDemand for Small, Largecapacity MLCCs +81 3 6836-8897 Domestic production of ceramic capacitors converted into US$-10.4%YoY and+11.8%MoMinApr.MLCCshipmentvalueinUS$accordingtoMoFtradestatswas+16.0%YoY and +9.1% MoM. Key TakeawaysIt is unclear why MLCC production stats show domestic output value in US$ falling YoY while trade stats show export value increasingWe raise our forecast for MLCC shipment value in 2026 from $16.48bn (+12.4% YoY) to $17.43bn (+18.8% YoY).Demand for small, large-capacity MLCCs for Al/DC use seems Likely to continue expanding. Ceramic capacitors (MLcCs): Apr output ￥70.9bn (-1.1% YoY, +12.0% MoM), withaverage selling price (ASP) of ￥0.63 (-20.0% YoY, +1.4% MoM). In US$ terms,production value of $445.50mn was -10.4% YoY from $497.25mn and +11.8% MoMfrom $398.56mn, while ASP of 0.399c was -27.5% YoY from 0.550c and +1.2%MoM from 0.394c. Source: METI, Morgan Stanley Research AECs: Apr production ￥16.5bn (+3.2% YoY, -3.1% MoM), with ASP of ￥19.1(+0.3%YoY,-1.1% MoM).In US$, production value of $103.77mn was -6.4% YoY from$110.91mn and -3.3% MoM from $107.35mn, while ASP of 12.03c was -9.1% YoYfrom 13.24c and 1.3% MoM from 12.19c. Trade stats show MLCC export value in US$ +16.0% YoY, +9.1% MoM: Trade statspublished by MOF on May 28 showed Apr MLCC export value at ￥74.2bn (+28.0%YoY, +9.3% MoM), export volume at 93.1bn units (+10.4%, +6.5%), and ASP at￥0.797 (+15.9%, +2.6%). In US$, export value of $466.23mn was +16.0% YoY from$402.05mn and+9.1% MoM from $427.52mn, while ASP of 0.501c rose 5.0% YoYfrom 0.477C and 2.4% MoM from 0.489c. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research.As a result,investors should be awarethat the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a singlefactor in making their investmentdecision. We raise our global MLcC shipment value forecasts: We estimate that globalMLCC shipment value was $14.67bn in 2025 (+10.3% YoY) and raise our forecastsfrom $16.48bn (+12.4% YoY) to $17.43bn (+18.8%) for 2026, $18.34bn (+11.2%) to$20.89bn (+19.9%) for 2027, and $20.30bn (+10.7%) to $24.25bn (+16.1%) for 2028.We expect Al/data center-related demand for value-added products to continueexpanding in and after 2026. For analyst certification andother important disclosures,referto the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA,may not be associated persons of thememberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company,public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Raise global MLCC shipment value forecast $17.47bnin2021(+26.0%YoY)to$14.32bnin2022(-18.1%)and$12.64bnin2023(-11.7%)before rising again to $13.30bn in 2024 (+5.2%) and $14.67bn in 2025 (+10.3%). Weincrease our forecasts for shipment value from $16.48bn (+12.4% YoY)to $17.43bn(+18.8% YoY) for 2026, from $18.34bn (+11.2%) to $20.89bn (+19.9%) for 2027, and from$20.30bn(+10.7%)to$24.25bn (+16.1%)for2028We foresee ongoing expansion in demand for value-added products for Al/DC use from 2026. This application and the shift to a new generation of GPUs will require largequantities of MLCCs with large capacity owing to space constraints for chip-use ABFpackage substrates and Al accelerator boards. (1) Murata is a frontrunner inminiaturization and increased capacity; (2)although MLCCs generally experience areduction in capacitance when a DC voltage is applied, Murata's MLCCs maintain a largeeffective capacitance with minimal change; (3) Murata's MLCCs also have thecharacteristic of maintaining stable capacitance during high-frequency operation, wherecurrents in electronic circuits switch rapidly. We think these features are likely to createmore opportunities for customers to pay premium prices for Murata's high-quality andhighly reliable products. Some market participants expect MLCC unit prices to rise forsimilar products, but we forecast that unit prices for comparable products will continue todecline mildly. In contrast, as miniaturization and increased capacity progress, we think itLikely that Murata will increase sales with differentiated high value-added products, andsee a clearer difference in profit margins compared to other MLCC companies. We think akey risk for Murata would be if it were unable to ramp up production to meet surgingdemand in computing areas, such as Al servers/data centers, and it lost share as a result ofsacrificing supply capacity of MLCCs for other applications in order to respond to risingdemand. However, our view is that it will be able to increase production in Line with risingdemand. US$ MLCC export value in trade stats +16.0% YoY, +9.1%MoM (