支付金融科技股票接近10年低点：是时候采取大胆行动了吗

Harshita Rawat, CFA+1 917 344 8485harshita.rawat@bernsteinsg.comSimran Ratani+1 917 344 8329simran.ratani@bernsteinsg.comViola Chen+1 917 344 8614viola.chen@bernsteinsg.com EXHIBIT 2:Some stocks within our coverage are now testing10yr lows on prices (or new lows since IPO) PAYMENTS/FINTECH VALUATIONS ARE NEAR THE Some stocks within our coverage are now testing 10yr lows. Someof the pain reflects pure market dynamic around the AI trade andalso the conflict in the Middle East. Some is related to maturity andcompetition in certain end markets. Some of the pain, unfortunately, Peak stock price as of 6/11/2025 for Visa, 8/22/2025 for Mastecard, 8/24/2021for Adyen, 11/2/2021 for Toast, 8/5/2021 for XYZ, 2/14/2020 for FIS, 3/3/2025for FISV, 4/29/2021 for GPN, 7/23/2021 for PYPL, 9/10/2025 for KlarnaSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis TRUE, THE TAM SEEMS MORE FINITE NOW (VS.5 YEARS AGO) AND THE WHITE SPACE TO GROW, For e.g., we recently published our 12thannual edition of theglobal payments model (see link) where we now forecast ~8%card volume growth (5-6% in the U.S.) through 2030 vs. ~9-10% historically (~6% in the U.S.) as US card market is approachingmaturity and there are unique dynamics in Asia. Within U.S. and European eCommerce, Adyen, Stripe (private),Braintree, and Checkout (private) are already ~50% of the market,vs. ~teens% 5 years ago. Toast, Clover, and Square are now ~50% of the restaurant market -vs. 15% 5 years ago. PayPal’s branded volumes decelerated from26% between 2018-21 to 5% in 2022 to 2% in 1Q26. The historical playbook for legacy (gaining scale to compete withmodern players) is simply not working. AI is then driving moatquestions for seemingly defensive bank tech businesses. EXHIBIT 4:True, the TAM seems more finite now (vs. 5 yearsago) and the white space to grow, mathematically, more THAT SAID, REVENUE GROWTH ACROSS MOST OFTHESE COMPANIES HAS BEEN HEALTHY (FOR SOME, VAS is ~30% of V’s business and ~40% of MA’s and grew >20%last year. For Adyen, Unified and Platforms are now 44% ofrevenue, and grew ~38% cc last year (vs. ~13% cc for digital). ForToast, F&B retail and enterprise are now HSD-LDD% of locations- there is ARPU upside from new software modules e.g., Toast IQGrow (and potentially also the MDL settlement). Block has leaned EXHIBIT 9:VAS is ~30% of V’s business and ~40% of MA’sand grew >20% last year. For Adyen, Unified and Platformsare now 44% of revenue, and grew ~38% cc last year (vs.~13% cc for digital). EXHIBIT 8:Toast, Clover, Square are now ~50% of therestaurant market - vs. teens% 5 years ago. FINTECH IS BRUISED, NOT BROKEN – AS THECURRENT VALUATIONS SUGGEST Stock reactions have been disproportionate relative tomodest estimate revisions. For e.g., even as stocks under ourcoverage are down ~33% (on average) over the past year, averagerevenue and EPS revisions have been down LSD% (+1% excluding Taking a step back, revenue pool for the sector is growinghealthily.The average organic revenue/GP growth for stockswithin our coverage was ~HSD-DD% in 2025 and will also besimilar in 2026. Even though capital light businesses are currently Block estimate revisions partially driven by risk losses which the company doesn’tinclude in their Gross Profit not in favor, we must remind investors that the sector remainsincredibly cash-generative. FCF yields across some names acrossour coverage are as high as low-to-mid-teens%. Certain companies EXHIBIT 12:..and EPS revisions have been down LSD% (+1%excluding Klarna and FISV where revisions have been EXHIBIT 13:Taking a step back, revenue pool for the sectoris growing healthily (in aggregate). The average organicrevenue/GP growth for stocks within our coverage was for KLAR we show TM$ Growth, for FIS we show Organic CC Growth for FY25 andProforma Growth for FY26E; for FISV/GPN we show Organic CC GrowthSource: Company reports, Bernstein estimates and analysis FCF permitting), cost cuts, tech simplification, selective portfoliopruning and long-term high ROI investments. Below, we discuss ourupdated wishlist in light of the valuation environment. EXHIBIT 14:FCF yields across some names across ourcoverage are as high as low-to-mid-teens%. Certaincompanies within our coverage (e.g., PYPL, GPN) will buy 1. AGGRESSIVE SHARE BUYBACKS The payments sector is incredibly cash generative. To the extenta company can ‘afford’ it, we hope to see more buybacks at theserock bottom valuation levels. We note that many companies (PYPL,GPN) are already doing this. The complication is that some of thecompanies (FIS, FISV) are in the midst of de-leveraging post recentacquisitions - and meaningful buybacks can’t happen in the near- There are, however, some other companies where there is a clearand urgent case for buybacks.Adyen, for e.g., still has EUR 4Bon balance sheet (low teens% of current market cap) evenafter recent Talon One and Orb acquisitions, and will generate EXHIBIT 15:Many companies (e.g., PYPL and GPN) are alreadydoing agg