处在十字路口：不确定性时代的粮食

Shaping the future of food systems April 2026 Contents Foreword3Executive summary4 Part 1:How we got here – a clear look backPart 2:What the future might hold –scenarios and signalsPart 3:Reflections on the tensions and Annex I:Four plausible scenariosAnnex II:Look back to look forward:a futures thinking framework Foreword Food systems are entering a period of profound disruption and possibility. Artificial intelligence and other technological breakthroughs, climate volatility, demographic change, shifting consumer health and nutrition needs and geopoliticalfracture are interacting in ways that are reshaping how food is produced, traded andconsumed. At the same time, the system remains exposed to highly concentratedrisks – where critical inputs and foodstuffs depend on a small number of geographiesand routes, as illustrated by the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for up to 30% of globally On behalf of the Gordon and BettyMoore Foundation: The coming decade will reveal how food systems respond to the risks andopportunities before them – with the trajectory far from settled. harder and more consequential. Deliberate, holistic decisions and solutions are required,grounded not only in what is needed, but in what is realistically achievable. If the systemthat emerges is to meet a broader set of objectives – economic productivity, affordability,environmental sustainability and structural resilience – we will need more open and Aileen S LeePresident, Gordonand Betty MooreSabine MiltnerProgram Director,Conservation and It was in this context that we teamed up on a futures thinking and foresighteffort over the last year. As the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation marked its 25th anniversary and, moreimportantly, the beginning of its next 25 years, the Foundation and Systemiq partneredto explore what today’s global uncertainty means for the future of food systems andfor the impact we seek to drive. Together, we asked: how did we get here, what plausible On behalf of Systemiq: As part of that journey, we convened more than 70 leaders for a Symposiumin Zurich in January 2026. We brought together voices from civil society, academia, intergovernmentalorganisations, business, finance and philanthropy. The aim was not to agree on a singlevision of the future. It was to reflect on plausible futures in ways that stretch conventional JeremyOppenheim ChristineDelivanisPartner, Head of This report builds on the momentum of the Zurich Symposium and on thebroader reflection and learning that has unfolded over the past year, extending In a world increasingly characterised by fragmentation and structural uncertainty, thetrajectory of food systems will be determined by the strategic, financial, technological andpolitical choices we make along the way – from which objectives get prioritised to howcoordination evolves. By exploring plausible futures and identifying practical areas for Executive summary The global food system is not broken; it has beenextraordinarily successful when judged against its originalobjectives. Built to deliver abundant, affordable caloriesat scale, it has fed billions, reduced famine risk and drivenproductivity gains through science, technology and trade. Yet the very objectives the systemwas built to deliver are now under In parallel, the food system is alsocompounding the risks it now faces. Decision-makersmust balanceproductivity withrisk exposure,diversification and strain.The capacity to provide abundant,affordable and stable food suppliescan no longer be taken for granted, asyield growth is flattening in key regions,environmental degradation is undermininglong-term productivity and diet-relateddisease is rising even as hunger persists.Food production is both a significantcontributor to greenhouse gas emissionsand highly exposed to climate shocks. Risksthat accumulated quietly over decadesResponsible for roughly one-third of globalgreenhouse gas emissions, the majority offreshwater withdrawals, and 90% of globaldeforestation, it is a primary driver of theenvironmental stress reshaping its ownoperating conditions.and land conversion, overfishing, methaneemissions and input-intensive productionamplify climate and ecosystem disruption –pressures that feed back into yield volatility,water scarcity and supply shocks. System 3,4,5,6Deforestation and rising costs, threatening affordability,stability, and future supply itself. TheseDecision-makers must balance productivitywith risk exposure, diversification and long- Preventing the system from crackingunder mounting pressure requires greater clarity about what it must now deliver.The old system scaled because the least capacity to absorb them. its objectives were simple and singular.Today, long-term resilience depends onnavigating multiple goals at once: securesupply, affordability, health, environmentalsustainability, livelihoods and resilience.Trade-offs are unavoidable. This makesprioritisation essential: non-negotiableobjectiv