在经济环境恶化的背景下，破产率再次上升

Insolvencies are on the rise again against a backdrop of a Paris,11June2026–The global business climate is deteriorating at an acceleratingpace: business insolvencies surged by 12% in early 2026, driven by North America Key points:•+12%:rise in global insolvencies in early 2026,signalinga rapid deterioration in the business climate The economic downturn is now evident in the figures The global business environment has weakened noticeably in recent months as theeconomic consequences of the Iran conflict The12%rise in insolvencies recorded in early2026,including a 22%increase in NorthAmerica, illustrates the scale of the current This trend isfueled by recent geopoliticaltensions,notably in the Middle East,therepercussionsof which are beginning to Forecasts revised upwards for 2026 Against this backdrop, Coface is significantly revising its insolvency forecasts for 2026.Global insolvencies are now expected to rise by around6%,more than double the increaseanticipated at the start of the year. Significant increases are expected inthe United States(+8%), France(+8%) and Japan(+7%), whilst Germany andthe Netherlands are expected to seerisesof around 5%.More moderate Interest rates exacerbate an already Against this already fragile backdrop,financingconditionscontinuetoweigh heavily on businesses. Despitethestart of a easing cycle,interest This constraint is all the more significant given that businesses are entering this phase withhistorically high levels of debt. Consequently, even small changes in financing conditionscan have a disproportionate impact: a rise of just25 basis pointsin borrowing rates wouldbe enough to accelerate global defaults once again and bring their growth closer to the Cyclical sectors on the front line Pressures remain particularly acute in the sectors most sensitive to economic cycles andfinancingconditions.Construction,chemicals and textiles continue to be the most In several major economies, these vulnerabilities are already having a tangible impact:•UnitedStates: the industrial and construction sectors are being hit by risingfinancing costs and slowing demand.•Germany: industry, particularly the chemical and construction sectors, remains In these sectors, the combination of high production costs, squeezed margins and tighteraccess to finance significantly reduces companies’ ability to adjust. This vulnerability is even more pronounced for SMEs, which are often less diversified andmore exposed to cash flow fluctuations. As a result, in several regions, these sectors are Government intervention unlikely to provide the same buffer The relatively subdued level of insolvencies between 2020 and 2023 was largely attributabletoextensive government support in response to the Covid-19 pandemic and theconsequences of the Ukraine war. While support measures are being reintroduced in somecountries, they remain significantly more limited in scale. In major European economies–including France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK–fiscal support in 2022–2023 amountedto approximately 2–4% of GDP. By contrast, current measures are far smaller,with the COFACE PRESS OFFICEAdrien Billet: +33 6 59 46 59 15 Alice Bastard: +33 7 72 10 95 14adrien.billet@coface.comLucie Bolelli: +33 6 42 18 30 82coface@havas.com COFACE: FOR TRADE As a global leading player in trade credit risk management for80years, Coface helps companies grow Whatever their size, location or sector, Coface provides 100,000 clients across some 200 markets. with afull range of solutions: Trade Credit Insurance, Business Information, Debt Collection, Single Riskinsurance, Surety Bonds, Factoring. Every day, Coface leverages its unique expertise and cutting-edge