尽管经济复苏，中东欧破产率仍在上升

CONTENTS CHALLENGING BUSINESSCONDITIONS DESPITE A REBOUND Insolvency trends in Central international trade, due to the unprecedent 2024 was a year of cautious recovery, as theregion sought to rebound from the challengesof 2023. Growth resumed, inflation eased, andstructural shifts began to take shape, though In 2024, the majority of Central and EasternEuropean(CEE)countries experienced anincrease in the number of business insolvencies. Thesebusiness dynamics occurred despitethegenerallyimprovingmacroeconomic Consumption and investment drive RealGDP growth in the region averaged2.6% in 2024, up from 0.8% in 2023. Privateconsumption was a key driver of this recovery,supported by declining inflation and rising real A rebound in growth, but not inbusiness stability Following a complicated year in 2023, whenthe region was on the brink of stagnation, the Householdsregainedpurchasingpower,boosting retail sales and domestic demand.Investment activity also improved, spurred byEU funding for infrastructure and green energy This has happened amid a substantial fall inthe inflation rate and a gradual normalizationofcommodity prices.However,just as the However, weak external demand from majortradingpartners such as Germany limited Conversely,Romania,Poland and Hungarymaintained tighter monetary policies due to A potential wage-price spiral remained a risk formany CEE economies as nominal wage growthexceeded 10% in some countries like Hungary Economicperformance varied across theregion. Poland and Croatia were among thestronger performers, with growth rates of 2.9% Fiscal changes and strategicspending The Czech Republic saw a modest rebound of1%, constrained by tighter fiscal policies and Fiscal policy played a critical role in shapingeconomicoutcomes during the year.Public “Economic performancevaried across the region.of GDP in 2024 from 4.9% in 2023, but challengespersisted for many governments. Inflation and wage pressures remainuneven Inflationremained a central concern,butmoderatedsignificantly compared to theprevious year. The regional average inflationrate fell to 4.6% in 2024 from 11.2% in 2023, among the strongerperformers, with growtsRisinginterest payments posed significantburdenson high-debt countries such asHungary, where debt servicing costs consumed rated of 2.9% and 2.6%,”an increasing share of government revenue. ForHungary, delays in accessing EU funds due to says Mateusz Dadej. “TheCzech Republic saw arule-of-law disputes further constrained publicinvestment. However, inflation levels varied widely acrossthe region. The Czech Republic achieved one ofthe lowest rates at 2.7%, while Romania facedhigher inflation at 6.5%. Hungary also struggled modest rebound of 1.6%,constrained by tighterfiscal policies aimed atreducing deficits.”Despitethese challenges,strategic spendingondefense and energy transition projectsaccelerated across the region. Poland allocatedanimpressive 4%of its GDP to militarymodernization efforts in response to heightened Central banks responded differently to theseinflationdynamics.In the Czech Republic, same time, governments prioritized investmentsin renewable energy infrastructure to meet EUclimate targets and reduce dependence on fossil CHALLENGING BUSINESSCONDITIONS DESPITE A REBOUND The Hungarian and Polish legaleffects on insolvency counts “The total number ofcorporate insolvencyproveedings in CEEcountries covered byour analysis decreased Thetotal number of corporate insolvencyproceedings in CEE countries covered by ouranalysis decreased from 50,248 in 2023 to 45,938in 2024, a decline of around 9%. The bulk of thechange is due to the decrease in insolvencies Similarly, in the case of Poland, the increaseisa result of the introduction of dedicated Initially meant to be temporary measures, theseprovisionswere ultimately incorporated intoPolish law on a permanent basis. Nowadays, dynamicsinLithuaniaalsoreflectmoresupportivemacroeconomic conditions,with We also saw an increase in Croatia, the CzechRepublic, Romania, and Slovenia, with the latter Countries with rising insolvencies Apart from Poland, several other countries alsosaw an increase in their insolvency statistics. Tosomeextentthemacroeconomicenvironmentin Slovenia was less favorable, with weak privateconsumption due to the change to the health The Baltic States of Latvia (24.6%) and Estonia(10.2%)experienced a significant increase ininsolvencies, while Lithuania had virtually thesame number as the previous year. This reflectsa struggle with the competitiveness of the Baltic Countries with improving trends:Bulgaria, Slovakia, Serbia On the other hand, several other countries,including Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Serbia, have At the same time, the nearby Nordic countrieshave seen a nominal depreciation against theeuro, making regional trade more competitive CHALLENGING BUSINESSCONDITIONS DESPITE A REBOUND These countries also outperformed the rest ofthe region in terms of growth rates