美国半导体行业研究：智能体崛起，服务器CPU市场规模上调至1700亿美元

Rise of the Agents: raising CPU TAM to$170bn Price Objective Change 11 June 2026 CPU reborn: Agentic AI drives 5x demandBased on our analysis andrecent industry discussions at BofA Global Tech Conference EquityUnited StatesSemiconductors (see ourconf takeaways), we raise our CY2030E server CPU TAM to $170bn+ (from$125bn), implying nearly 5x growth and +37% CAGR over CY25-30E (vs. +29% prior).We view the emergence of agentic AI as a powerful demand accelerant that expands theCPU opportunity and lifts both x86incumbents and ARM challengers. Against thisbackdrop, we raise ourAMDPO to $560 from $500 on higher CPU/GPU estimates,ARMto $335 from $245 on greater l-t chiplet potential;INTCis double-upgraded to Buy witha $135 PO (see our ), with higher estimates now reflecting both n-t CPU and l-t foundryupsides.NVDAremains our top sector pick on full-stack AI leadership, benefiting fromtight CPU-GPU-networking integration, also poised to benefit from agentic CPU.QCOMisexpected to announce new AI CPUs at its Jun-24 AI Day in NYC, but we maintainUnderperform given tough competition and limited SAM. Vivek AryaResearch AnalystBofASvivek.arya@bofa.com Duksan JangResearch AnalystBofASduksan.jang@bofa.com Michael ManiResearch AnalystBofASmichael.mani@bofa.com Liam PharrResearch AnalystBofASliam.pharr@bofa.com Agentic workloads shift complexity to CPUs from XPUsAgentic AI differs from traditional genAI by shifting from a single prompt-response workflow to a multi-step system that plans, reasons, retrieves info, uses tools, executescode simultaneously. While XPUs remain critical for inference, many orchestration anddecision-making functions are latency-sensitive, sequential, and I/O-intensive—makingthem better suited for CPUs. Our new CPU model uniquely segments the $170bn TAMby application (1.standalone agentic CPU;2.head/compute node CPU for AI clusters;3.traditional/IaaS), as well as by vendor (AMD, INTC, NVDA, ARM merchant, ARM custom).We expect head/compute nodes in AI clusters to use higher frequency and stronger butfewer cores, while agentic and traditional applications will rely on higher core counts. Double-upgrading INTC, while AMD top CPU pick OurINTCdouble-upgrade is based on higher confidence in INTC's opportunity to helpaddress industry constraints in leading edge wafers/packaging, plus larger agentic CPUTAM. We now see CY30 EPS power $6+ vs $3-4 prior, though execution is key. RecentCDNS 14A node IP sign-up and Terafab engagements are additional supportive datapoints. ForAMD, we raise est/PO to $560, top CPU pick on incumbency + pipeline +upcoming AI day (Venice launch).NVDAremains top sector pick on full-stack leadership. For detailedcompany analysis,PO/rating change and valuationdiscussion, see pg. 10-17. ARM/QCOM: CPU share gainers but flag val’n/competitionForARM, we now use a FY31/CY30E sum-of-parts valuation, see total company value of ~$335 ($229 IP + $106 chip), and we see the stock as fairly valued.QCOMhaspotential to announce new AI CPUs and lead customers at its Jun-24 AI Day, but we flagtough CPU competition amid already established incumbents. See glossary on page 23. Key debate: TAM substitution vs expansion Debate centers on whether CPUs take share from GPUs/accelerators or contribute tooverall AI TAM expansion. We see expansion dominating: CPU demand scales withsystem complexity, as is the case with reasoning/agentic AI. Additional debates includedurability of the 30%+ AI capex CAGR and mix shifts to custom silicon (CPUs and XPUs). BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterestthat could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 29 to 33. Analyst Certification on page 27. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 26.12983146 Timestamp: 11 June 2026 06:00AM EDT Contents AI Compute Table of Hierarchy3$170bn+ Server CPU TAM5Market share outlook analysis6Traditional vs. AI Head Node (Compute) vs. Agentic Rack7CPUs now 8%+ of Data Center Systems TAM9AMD: Maintain Buy, raise PO to $560 from $50010AMD CPU Advantages10Upcoming catalyst: Advancing AI 2026 (July)11INTC: Upgrade to Buy from U/P, PO $13512Fully established IDM by CY30, EPS power $6+12ARM: Reit. Neutral, raise PO to $33514Sum-of-Parts Valuation: IP & Chip Businesses14NVDA: Maintain Buy, top AI sector pick15Rising content, increasing opp’ty, solid supply visibility15Vera Rubin now in full production, lowest token cost15Vera CPU: head node vs. agentic AI likely 50/50 opp’ty16NVDA content $/GW rising materially gen-over-gen16RTX Spark for personal agentic AI, for top 10% Windows16QCOM: U/P on competitive landscape17Role of CPUs in Agentic AI18CPUs in training18CPUs in inference19CPUs in Agentic AI20Agentic AI is system-led, not CPU or GPU-led21AI CPUs expand system TAM, no