新车型、机器人、自动驾驶出租车作为关键催化剂

New models, robots, robotaxi as key catalysts Maintain BUY.Xpeng’s 1Q26 results werelargelyin linewith our estimates.We expect salesvolume to double HoH in2H26E, driven by theGXand threeupcoming new models. We also see robotaxi pilot operation in 3Q26 and 1Q26 earnings largely in line.Xpeng's 1Q26 revenue fell 18% YoY amida 33% YoY decline in sales volume, or 2% higher than our prior forecast.GPM in 1Q26 narrowed by 0.7ppts QoQ to 20.6%, or 0.9ppts higher thanourprojection.That,along with slightly higher-than-expected R&Dexpenses, led to an in-line operating loss. Net loss in 1Q26 was RMB1.8bn, China Auto expected interest expenses.New models, exports to fuel sales volume recovery in 2H26E.Orderbacklogfor thenewGXhasexceeded our priorexpectation. Managementindicatedthatmore than80% of first-batch orderscommandedwerepricedaboveRMB350,000, which couldenhanceXpeng’s overall brand imageand vehicle GPM, in ourview. We expect Xpeng’sFY26Esales volume torise 16% YoY to 0.5mn units, implying adoubling HoHin 2H26E, mainly Humanoid robot,robotaxias emerging catalysts.Xpeng’s humanoidrobot,Iron, is on track for mass production bythe end of2026, which couldbe initiallydeployed across itsshowrooms. We haveintegrated roboticrevenue streams from FY27E, assuming sales volume of 10,000 units andrevenue of RMB2.5bn.Xpeng targetsa 3Q26launchfor itspilot robotaxi Valuation/Key risks.Weexpect net loss to narrow significantly in 2Q26E,asmanagementexpectsaflatsequentialGPM and a60-70% QoQ surgeinsales volume. WeexpectXpeng toturnnet profitablein 2H26 driven bygreatereconomiesof scale. We maintain our BUY rating andswitch fromaP/S-based valuation to sum-of-the-parts(SOTP)to better captureXpeng’s growing visibility in robotics.Our new target prices ofUS$21/HK$82reflect a 1.0x FY27E P/S onitsauto business and 10xFY27E P/S on the robotics segment.Key risks include lower sales/GPM Source: FactSet Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuerthatthe analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report. Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and FuturesCommission) (1) have dealt in or tradedin the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM Ratings BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a whollyowned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable for the purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on the or its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed. This report is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation tobuy or sell any security or any interest insecurities or enter into any transaction.NeitherCMBIGMnor any of its affiliates,shareholders, agents, consultants, directors, officers or employees shall beliable for any loss, damage or expense whatsoever, whether direct or consequential, incurred in relying on the information contained in this report.Anyonemaking use of the information contained in this report does so entirely at their own risk. CMBIGMhas exerted everyeffort in its capacity to ensure, but not to guarantee, their accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness.CMBIGMprovidesthe information, advices and forecast