中国贸易动能进一步加速

China Macro Trade momentum accelerated further Deyun OuEconomist+852-2203-6166 China’s trade momentum accelerated further in May, supported by continued“AHEAD”factorsand rising trade flows in energy and petrochemical products. Exportsrose furtherto 19.4%YoYfrom 14% in the first four months.In seasonallyadjustedterms,exports reached a new historical high.“AHEAD”factorsremained the dominant drivers, contributing 16ppts to headline growth.Withinthis, AI-related exports saw asignificantstep-up, with growth doubling to 81%YoYin May (vs. 42% inJan-Apr), liftingtheircontribution to 10pptsfrom 5ppts.In addition, energy and petrochemical exports strengthened notably, with refinedoil exports rebounding from-1% to +27% YoY, and plastics accelerating from 7%to 12%YoY. This underscores China’s pricing advantage in energy-intensivesectors. Yi Xiong, Ph.D.Chief Economist+852-2203-6139 By destination, emerging markets remainedstrong, while shipments to advancedeconomies re-accelerated sharply.Total exports to ASEAN, Africa, and LatinAmerica held steady at around 18%YoY, contributing 6ppts to overall growth.Meanwhile, exports to major developed markets,including the US, Japan,SouthKorea, and Taiwan,surged, with combined growth jumping from 2% to 30%YoY,largely driven by strong AI-related demand.Therebound in exports to the US alsolikely reflectedtariffdisruption, as May last year was a low base, while tariff easingand the recent bilateral engagement have supported a gradual normalization intrade flows. Import growth alsoacceleratedto27.4%YoY from 23%.In line with export trends,machinery products,particularly AI-related goods,continued to gain momentum,whilemetals likecopper imports remained on a rising trend.Notably, energyimports strengthened significantly. Earlier increases in energy exports from majorsuppliers to China in March–April had not yet been reflected in China’s importdata; the May release now captures this lag, with sharp accelerations in importsof crude oil, coal, and natural gas. Wereiterateour full-year forecasts of 12% export growth and 15% import growth.Risksare tilted to the upside,if momentum in energy and petrochemical tradefurtherstrengthen.Against the backdrop ofstrongtrade activity, we remainconstructive on the RMB, expecting appreciation to 6.55 by end-2026 and furtherto 6.30 by 2027. 9 June 2026China Macro Source:Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics Source:Deutsche Bank Research, CEIC. Note: AI-related products include integratedcircuits, mobile phones, computers, and other data processing equipment. Source:Deutsche Bank Research, CEIC Source:Deutsche Bank Research, CEIC 9 June 2026China Macro Appendix 1 Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). Inaddition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specificrecommendation or view in thisreport. Deyun Ou, Yi Xiong, Ph.D.. Important Disclosures Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subjectcompanies, and other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research,please visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk andconflict disclosures can also be found athttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors arestrongly encouraged to review this information before investing. 9 June 2026China Macro Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively'Deutsche Bank'). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sourcesbelieved to be reliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks tothird-party websites in this report are provided for reader convenience only. Deutsche Bank neither endorses thecontent nor is responsible for the accuracy or security controls of those websites. If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in thisreport, or is included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst, DeutscheBank may act as principal for its own account or as agent for another person. Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for itsown account or with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others withinDeutsche Bank, including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with thosetaken in this research report. Deutsche