e-SAF市场：欧洲的先发优势与未来之路：欧洲能否实现其合成航空燃料的雄心？

REPORT - JUNE 2025 The e-SAF market: Europe’s headstart and the road ahead Can Europe deliver on its e-kerosene ambitions? The e-SAF market: Europe’s headstart and the road ahead Published: June 2025 Authors: Camille Mutrelle, Francesco Catte, Alexander KunkelModelling: Alexander Kunkel, Camille Mutrelle Editeur responsable: William Todts, Executive Director To cite this report T&E (2025).The e-SAF market: Europe’s head start and the road ahead. Further information Camille MutrelleAviation Policy OfficerT&Ecamille.mutrelle@transportenvironment.org Alexander KunkelSenior AnalystT&E Acknowledgements Thefindings and views put forward in this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors Funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are,however, those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect Executive summary SustainableAviation Fuels(SAFs)are expected to play a critical role in aviation’sdecarbonisation. In 2023,the EU adopted the world’s most ambitious SAF mandate (ReFuelEU),including sub-targets for synthetic fuels produced from renewable hydrogen and carbon.These e-fuels — referred to interchangeably ase-SAFore-kerosenein this report — are the No large-scale e-SAF facility — with a production capacity above 10,000 tonnes of e-keroseneper year — is operational yet, but ReFuelEU has successfully triggered a wave of projectannouncements. As of May 2025,41 large-scale e-SAF projects are under development inEurope(up from 27 in January 2024), making it the region with the most projects in the world. However, these projects are maturing rather slowly: most are still in intermediate stages ofdevelopment, andnone have reached a Final Investment Decision (FID)— a crucial milestone inshifting these projects from paper to reality. Although it is still feasible to meet ReFuelEU’s 2030 WhileEurope accounts for more than half of the world’s announced e-SAF production capacity, other regions are also stepping up — particularly China, where 11 large-scale plants are indevelopment, mainly led by state-owned energy companies. Although the United States has farfewer projects on the cards, theworld’s largest e-SAF offtake agreement to dateand thefirst A number of factors make Europe a favourable location for e-kerosene production: a unique andbinding e-SAF mandate that creates strong demand, andone of the cleanest electricity grids intheworld,which gives European projects a cost advantage under the current regulatory However, European projects face multiple hurdles, which have so far kept most of themconfined to the planning stages. These include perceivedregulatory uncertainties, particularlyaround enforcement mechanisms and the upcoming 2027 review of ReFuelEU, which is seen asvulnerable to industry pressure to weaken or delay SAF targets. Additional barriers include Financing remains the most significant hurdle,with each plant requiring€1-2 billion in capital. Start-ups have taken the lead in project development, stepping into a role that should havelogically been held by incumbent fuel suppliers. This developer profile, combined with the lackof binding offtake agreements from airlines, makes these projects appear high-risk to banks To unlock FIDs in time and preserve its head start on e-SAF, the EU should focus on establishingtargeted public funding mechanisms that facilitate offtake agreements, reduce risks, and lowerproject costs. TheSustainable Transport Investment Plan (STIP)is the perfect opportunity todesignsuch mechanisms,which could take the form of a market intermediary using With targeted action such as this, the EU will be well positioned to meet its 2030 target andbuilda globally competitive e-kerosene industry, delivering climate, industrial, and energy Table of Contents Executive summary3 Table of Contents5Introduction7Section 18Global market overview and trends81. Europe’s e-kerosene project landscape81.1. Despite cancellations and delays, Europe’s e-kerosene project pipeline keepsexpanding81.2. With only four European large-scale projects at advanced stage, Europe risksmissing the ambition set by the ReFuelEU and UK SAF mandates91.3. Project announcements are concentrated in countries with access to cheap,low-carbon electricity112. Global perspective: driven by the EU and UK mandates, Europe has positioned itself asa frontrunner for e-kerosene development15 Section 2 1.2. The ReFuelEU penalties are a strong enforcement mechanism, but patchynational implementation undermines their impact19 1.3. Strict production criteria support EU-based production, but loopholes like theeligibility of green hydrogen in biofuel production processes could weaken themandate22 2. Energy and CO₂ sourcing: opportunities and bottlenecks242.1. Europe’s clean electricity grid supports e-SAF deployment, but high energy costsand grid congestion remain major barriers242.2. Securing CO₂ already comes with challenges and is likely to become a growingbottleneck unless DAC