荷兰在合成航空燃料领域的机遇

Making e-SAF landOpportunities for the Netherlands in the Irina Patrahau and Ron StoopSeptember 2025 Making e-SAF landOpportunities for the Netherlands in thesynthetic aviation fuel sector Authors:Irina Patrahau and Ron Stoop Contributors:Elton Högklint and Lucia van Geuns QA:Tim Sweijs September 2025 The analysis presented in the paper, including the conclusionsand recommendations, is the product of independentresearch. The responsibility for the content of this paper ©The HagueCentre for Strategic Studies. All rightsreserved. No part of this report may be reproduced and/or published in any form by print, photo print, microfilm or Table of Contents Executive summary 1.Introduction2.e-SAF: The fuel, the market and the regulation3.The e-SAF supply chain in the Netherlands4.Opportunities for Dutch industry inseven emerging e-SAF markets 5.Conclusions and recommendations Annex 1.Overview of e-SAF projects in the seven countries Annex 2.Business environment indicators Executive summary The decarbonisation of aviation has been a major policy priority for the Netherlands and theEuropean Union (EU) writ large. Efforts largely centre on reducing emissions by blendingSustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) into conventional jet fuel, with the ultimate goal of gradually Synthetic sustainable aviation fuels (e-SAF) offer a complementary option to bio-based SAF.Green hydrogen and captured carbon are turned into e-SAF through power-to-liquid produc-tion processes. Incorporating e-SAF into the energy mix contributes to feedstock diversifi- The high e-SAF production costs compared to alternatives make regulatory support critical formarket development. The EU’sRenewable Energy Directive(RED) andReFuelEUAviationsetspecific sustainability criteria and targets for SAF starting from 2025 and progressively intensi-fying. As a result of these targets, the global e-SAF market is expected to accelerate after 2030 This report assesses opportunities for Dutch industry to engage with global partners in thee-SAF sector. Dutch companies have technical capabilities along the e-SAF supply chain,including in green hydrogen production, carbon capture and utilisation, and e-SAF production.They also have strengths in the field of project engineering, certification, trade, and researchand development in the e-SAF sector. These industrial assets along the e-SAF supplychain are paired with substantial national and regional demand for aviation fuel. The largest Together with the Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO) and representatives from the DutchMinistries of Foreign Affairs, Climate Policy and Green Growth, and Infrastructure and WaterManagement, seven potential e-SAF partner countries were selected for analysis: France,Spain, Sweden, Canada, Morocco, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia. Each country analysis considersthree aspects: (1) setup of the country’s e-SAF sector, defined by national ambitions and Spain, Sweden and Franceare moving faster than other countries on e-SAF develop-ment due to European regulations, bringing the most immediate opportunities for Dutchcompanies. Spain and Sweden have the highest potential out of the seven countries forshort-term collaboration with Dutch companies. This is because of their optimal conditionsfor e-fuel/e-SAF production (green grid, low energy costs) and a relatively small domesticmarket, providing more opportunities for export to the Netherlands. The two are already very Canadaoffers business opportunities for Dutch companies along the entire e-SAF supplychain. Canada offers good conditions for e-SAF production and has a relatively smalldomestic e-SAF market. This opens up opportunities for export. It also has a very stablebusiness environment and excellent geopolitical relations with the Netherlands. In addition,the country has strong resilience measures in place to prevent climate-related risks to phys-ical facilities and infrastructure. Even though significant green hydrogen projects have been AlthoughMorocco’sdomestic capabilities are lacking in the e-SAF supply chain, the countryis very open to foreign investment and offers space and low energy costs. Morocco’s signif-icant agricultural sector and forestry and wood waste could be sources of biogenic CO2forthe production of EU-compliant e-SAF, though carbon infrastructure is so far limited. For Brazilcould bring significant opportunities for cooperation to Dutch companies in the e-SAFsupply chain, though it faces some challenges in its business environment. Brazil has highlyattractive domestic conditions for the production of e-SAF, including affordable and abundantgreen electricity and very abundant biogenic carbon, but its e-fuel sector remains limited. Eventhough the Brazilian aviation market is substantial, consumption is heavily dominated by SAFproduced from sugarcane-based ethanol feedstock. This translates into limited domesticincentives to invest in e-SAF. The main driver for the establishment of e-SAF operations would The Kin