全球媒体：广告投资入门指南

Global Media: A beginner's guide to investing in Advertising Advertising is totally unnecessary. Unless you hope to make money.” - Jef I. Richards Annick Maas+44 20 7676 6683annick.maas@bernsteinsg.com Following on from “A beginner's guide to investing in Media” published last year, we arefocusing this year on the sub-sector Advertising. From traditional media owners, overagencies, ad tech and martech to the big digital platforms, combined this ever evolvingindustry is worth $1trn globally. We look into the various sub-sectors, what KPis to look into,the share price drivers and how the US/European markets compare/contrast. Christophe Cherblanc+41 582 723 540christophe.cherblanc@bernsteinsg.com Mark Shmulik+1 917 344 8508mark.shmulik@bernsteinsg.com The key structural insight: advertising growth is driven by redistribution, notconsumption expansion.Global media consumption has plateaued at ~11 hoursper day, constraining total inventory growth and implying intensifying competition forattention. Rather than structural volume expansion, value is shifting across formatsand platforms, with digital now accounting for over two-thirds of global ad spend. Thisfragmentation increases execution complexity and raises the premium on scale, targeting,and measurement—favouring large digital platforms with superior data ecosystems Laurent Yoon+1 917 344 8502laurent.yoon@bernsteinsg.com Nikhil Devnani, CFA+1 917 344 8425nikhil.devnani@bernsteinsg.com Two distinct advertising markets underpin diverging growth and risk profiles. Market #1 (agencies, traditional media) is concentrated, cyclical, and dependent on a fewthousand large clients; spend is volatile and often the first cost to be cut in downturns.Market #2 (digital platforms) is driven by millions of SMEs, structurally more resilient, andless predictable from top-down indicators. Our data shows SME-driven revenues accountfor roughly two-thirds of major platform ad revenues, highlighting a fundamentally differentgrowth engine. This distinction is often underappreciated by the market and explainspersistent outperformance of platform-led models. Digital advertising growth remains intact, but is evolving into a second phase. The first phase was driven by SME onboarding and self-serve tools; the second phase(since ~2023) is driven by inventory expansion (retail media, marketplaces, OTT) andpersonalisation at scale. Retail media in particular represents structurally high-margin,near-zero-cost inventory with strong targeting advantages, benefiting platforms likeAmazon and delivery ecosystems. AI acts as an accelerant—enhancing targeting, creativegeneration, and conversion—while reinforcing the competitive moat of scaled platforms Traditional players are adapting—but the mix shift remains insufficient. Broadcasters, OOH, and agencies are successfully replicating digital characteristics (e.g.,ITVx, VIOOH), achieving higher growth in these segments. However, these businesses stillrepresent a small proportion of group revenues, limiting their impact on overall growth andvaluation. Meanwhile, core linear advertising continues to decline in markets like the US,with DTC growth only partially offsetting the gap. High client concentration and cyclicalexposure further weigh on investment appeal. Table Of Contents How to think about Global Advertising Categorisations............................................................................................................................................ 2Revenue model - A volatile ride, but it is worth it.........................................................................................................................................................3The exchange and free rider model...........................................................................................................................................................................4From digital transition to digital fragmentation in advertising................................................................................................................................. 4Digital advertising growth formula............................................................................................................................................................................. 6Advertising - It is not all the same - market #1 emulates market #2 successfully...........................................................................................7This drives some conclusions, which we believe are essential to consider when looking at the advertising market:....................9Complexity - Fragmentation - Data transparency..................................................................................................................................................... 11Regulation & Measurement..........................................................................................................................................................