柬埔寨经济更新，2026年6月：应对冲击

SPECIAL FOCUS Forever YoungCambodia’s Demographic Transitionand the Road to Vision 2050Public Disclosure Authorized NavigatingShocks SPECIAL FOCUSForever Young? Cambodia’s Demographic Transitionand the Road to Vision 2050 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS....................................................................................................................... VIIIABBREVIATIONS..................................................................................................................................... IXEXECUTIVE SUMMARY...........................................................................................................................XRecent developments...................................................................................................................................... xOutlook and Risks......................................................................................................................................... xiPolicy options................................................................................................................................................. xi PART 1: RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK................................................1 Geopolitical Shocks and Domestic Demand Pressures................................................................................. 2Private Consumption Under Pressure........................................................................................................... 2Labor Market Shows Resilience in Absorbing Returnees............................................................................ 4FDI Robust, Domestic Investment Sluggish................................................................................................. 4 Outlook and risks.......................................................................................................................................... 12Policy options................................................................................................................................................ 12 PART 2: SPECIAL FOCUS SECTION: FOREVER YOUNG? CAMBODIA’S DEMOGRAPHICTRANSITION AND THE ROAD TO VISION 2050............................................................................16 I. INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................................17 Extent and Pace of Cambodia’s Demographic Transition.......................................................................... 17Compressed Window and Rising Burden on Workers............................................................................... 19 III. THE CURRENT STATE OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND..........................................19 A Dividend Captured but Fading................................................................................................................ 19Closing the Human Capital Gap................................................................................................................. 22 IV. NEW LEVERS FOR JOBS AND GROWTH TO HARNESS THE REMAININGDIVIDEND......................................................................................................................................23 Care Economy............................................................................................................................................... 23Childcare and Eldercare................................................................................................................................ 24 REGIONAL INTEGRATION: PEOPLE AND GOODS..................................................................26 Upgrading Labor Mobility........................................................................................................................... 26Diversifying Trade......................................................................................................................................... 27 V. POLICY IMPLICATIONS...............................................................................................................28 Pillar 1: Investing in People to Maximize Returns from Cambodia’s Demographic Dividend(Foundational Reforms)............................................................................................................................... 30 Pillar 2: Turning Demographic Asymmetry into Economic Opportunity (New OpportunityReforms).................................................................................................................................................32 ANNEX B. CAMBODIA – SELECTED INDICATORS.........................................................................37 BIBLIOGRAPHY........................................................................................................................................39 BOXES Box 1.Who bears the burden? Fuel price shocks and household welfare..........