越南经济更新，2026年5月：持续改革，应对不确定性

May 2026 Sustaining Reforms,Navigating Uncertainty Viet Nam Economic Update Sustaining Reforms,Navigating Uncertainty © 2026 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclu-sions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or thegovernments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does notassume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use oforfailure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes and other information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning thelegal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The citation of works authored by othersdoes not mean the World Bank endorses the views expressed by those authors or the content of their works. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immuni-ties of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, thiswork may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The WorldBank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. ACRONYMS ASEANAssociation of Southeast Asian NationsCPIConsumer Price IndexEAPEast Asia and PacificEMDEEmerging Market and Developing EconomyHOSEHo Chi Minh Stock ExchangeIEAInternational Energy AgencyIMFInternational Monetary FundMOFMinistry of FinanceNSONational Statistics OfficeODAOfficial Development AssistancePMIPurchasing Managers IndexSBVState Bank of Viet NamSOEState-owned enterpriseVBMAViet Nam Bond Market AssociationVNDViet Nam DongyoyYear-over-yearYTDYear-to-date ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This edition of the Viet Nam Economic Update was prepared by a team comprising Tehmina S. Khan (Lead Economist), SachaDray (Economist), Thu-Ha Thi Nguyen (Analyst) and Keomanivone Phimmahasay (Senior Economist). The report benefited from contributions by Viet Quoc Trieu (Senior Financial Sector Specialist), Trang Minh Ta (Consultant) andPaul Andres Corral Rodas (Senior Poverty Economist). Valuable comments from Habib Rab (Practice Manager, Fiscal Policyand Growth, World Bank) are gratefully acknowledged. 3The team is grateful for overall guidance from Mariam J. Sherman (Division Director for Viet Nam, Cambodia, and Lao PDR),Lalita M. Moorty (Regional Director for Prosperity, East Asia and Pacific) and Marco Hernandez (Practice Manager, Fiscal Policyand Growth, East Asia and Pacific). We are grateful to Anh Thi Quynh Le (External Affairs Officer) and Duong T. Tran (Senior External Affairs Officer) for deliveredcommunications support. The team would like to thank Hoa Thi Thanh Nguyen (Program Assistant) for excellent support during the preparation of thisreport, including during the typesetting and design stages. Simon Drought and Sean Lothrop provided editorial services. 1Executive Summary2A. Global Developments2The global and regional backdrop4The Middle East shock5B. Recent Economic Developments6Real sector, activity and sentiment12External balances and buffers13Prices14Monetary policy and financial sector19Public finances21C. Outlook, Risks and Policy Priorities21Outlook and risks23Policy challenges and priorities FIGURES Figure 27.Current account…………………….... .12Figure 28.Financial account………………………12Figure 29.Trade balance and growth by sector…...13Figure 30.Exchange rate (VND/US$)……………...13Figure 31.Foreign reserves…………………….....13Figure 32.Contribution to CPI……….…………….14Figure 33.Domestic fuel prices (VND/liter)..………14Figure 34.CPI breakdown for April-26………….. .14Figure 35.Credit and deposit growth……………...14Figure 36.Funding structure…...…………….…...15Figure 37.Interest rates…………….……………....15Figure 38.Credit-to-GDP…..……………………....15Figure 39.Capital adequacy ratio… .……………. .15Figure 40.Open market operations………………..16Figure 41.Non-performing loans ratio……………16Figure 42.Loan-loss reserves ratio……………… 16Figure B2.1. Breakdown of real estate loans………..17Figure 43.Equity price index…………………….. 18Figure 44.Net foreign buying (selling)………..…. 18Figure 45.Bond issuances………………………. 18Figure 46.Capital market(2023)………. …………18Figure 47.Fiscal balance………………………….19Figure 48.Public inves