企业层面的异质性与货币政策对劳动力需求的影响

Firm level heterogeneity and theimpact of monetary policy on labourdemand Gert Bijnens, John Hutchinson,Arthur Saint Guilhem Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP) This paper contains research conducted within the network “Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing WorldNetwork” (ChaMP). It consists of economists from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the national central banks (NCBs) of theEuropean System of Central Banks (ESCB). ChaMP is coordinated by a team chaired by Philipp Hartmann (ECB), and consisting of Diana Bonfim (Banco de Portugal), MargheritaBottero (Banca d’Italia), Emmanuel Dhyne (Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique) and Maria T. Valderrama(Oesterreichische Nationalbank), who are supported by Melina Papoutsi and Gonzalo Paz-Pardo (both ECB), 7 central bank advisersand 8 academic consultants. ChaMP seeks to revisit our knowledge of monetary transmission channels in the euro area in the context of unprecedented shocks,multiple ongoing structural changes and the extension of the monetary policy toolkit over the last decade and a half as well as the recentsteep inflation wave and its reversal. More information is provided on its website. Abstract Monetarypolicy asymmetrically affects the response of firms’employmentto an output shock and plays a role in cushioningemployment adjustment over the business cycle. Combining annual firm-level data until 2020 with quarterly firm-level data until 2023 and high-frequency monetary policy surprises, we show that for a given change inoutput, monetary policy influences the extent to which firms hold on tolabour, or “labour hoard”. Furthermore, this effect is asymmetric: arestrictive monetary policy reduces labour hoarding behaviour by 2 to 3times more than an accommodative policy increases it. Finally, we look atthe role of financing conditions and firm demographics. Keywords: Labour hoarding, Monetary policy transmission, Firm-level heterogeneity, Employmentadjustment, Financial constraints. JEL Codes: E52, J23, E32. Non-technical summary In recent years, employment in the euro area has remained remarkably strong, even when economicgrowth slowed and firms were hit by major shocks. Many companies chose not to lay off workerswhen demand weakened. Instead, they held on to staff, expecting conditions to improve or fearingthat it would be difficult to rehire later. Economists refer to this behaviour as “labour hoarding”. This paper examines how monetary policy influences this decision. Do lower interest ratesencourage firms to keep workers during downturns? And does tighter policy push firms to adjustemployment more quickly? To answer these questions, we combine detailed firm-level data from several euro area countrieswith high-frequency measures of monetary policy surprises around ECB announcements. This allowsus to study how firms change their workforce when output rises or falls, and how this responsedepends on the monetary policy environment. We find that monetary policy does matter. When policy is accommodative, firms tend to retain moreworkers for a given drop in output. When policy is restrictive, firms reduce employment morestrongly. Importantly, the effects are not symmetric: tightening has a noticeably stronger impact onemployment adjustment than easing. In other words, restrictive policy accelerates job cuts morethan accommodative policy prevents them. Not all firms respond in the same way. Financially constrained firms adjust employment moreaggressively when policy tightens. Firms with stronger balance sheets are better able to smoothemployment over time. Differences in workforce composition also play a role: while both high- andlow-skill firms respond to monetary policy, employment in low-skill firms tends to react morestrongly. Overall, our results show that monetary policy influences labour markets not only by affectingdemand in the economy, but also by shaping firms’ ability to retain workers during difficult periods.This helps explain why employment can remain resilient in some downturns, but also why it mayweaken more sharply during periods of monetary tightening. 1. Introduction A striking recent feature of the post-pandemic euro area economy is that employment has remainedexceptionally resilient despite sluggish output growth and successive inflationary shocks. This patternruns counter to the traditional Okun’s Law relationship and has been widely attributed tounprecedented labour market tightness and labour hoarding by firms (Doornik et al., 2023) Indeed,many businesses have opted to retain workers even amid demand shortfalls, in anticipation of futurerecovery or hiring difficulties. For example, an ECB survey of firms in early 2023 found that in a tightlabour market companies were keen to hold onto employees they expected to need going forward(Elding et al., 2023). Likewise, during the energy price spike of late 2022, firms were reluctant to shed