能源价格上涨对企业层面的影响

FIRM-LEVEL EFFECTS OFENERGY PRICE INCREASESPublic Disclosure Authorized Evidence and Insights from Recent Research Contents Acknowledgmentsv Executive Summaryvi 1Introductionxx 1.1. Background and First Principles21.2. What Do Microdata Say about Firm-Level Impacts of Energy Price Changes?41.3. Firm-Level Response Mechanisms to Policy-Induced Energy Price Changes5 2.1. Pass-Through152.2. Absorption172.3. Substitution222.4. Innovation and Productivity24 3The Importance of Careful Policy Design32 4Areas for Future Work34 References37 List of Figures FIGURE 1.1Firm-Level Response Framework6FIGURE 2.1Scope and Coverage of Review14 Acknowledgments This report was prepared by staff and consultants of the World Bank and the Energy SectorManagement Assistance Program (ESMAP). The underlying analysis was funded by ESMAP’sEnergy Subsidy Reform Facility. The main authors are Juergen Amann, Defne Gencer, andDirk Heine. The authors would like to acknowledge colleagues who were involved in different stages ofthe study, in particular Min A Lee, Noe Reidt, and Tanja Larsen. The production of thereport benefited from support from Sherrie Brown for editing services, Laura Johnson fordesign, and Heather Austin for publications. The authors are particularly grateful to Massimiliano Cali and Paolo Agnolucci, who servedas peer reviewers and whose inputs and advice helped strengthen the analysis and thefinal report. Any errors of interpretation are the sole responsibility of the authors. The authors would like to recognize Demetrios Papathanasiou, Global Director for Energyand Extractives, and Chandrasekar Govindarajalu, Manager of ESMAP, for providing theguidance, encouragement, and resources for this work. Executive Summary Energy is a critical factor of production for firms, and energy subsidies encourageexcessive and inefficient energy use.When the government subsidizes any specificinput, firms’ decisions regarding the optimal mix of input factors to produce output aredistorted, which can reduce economic efficiency: reducing the price of one particular inputencourages firms to use more of it per unit of output, distorting both the amount and theway a good is produced.1Reforming energy subsidies can help address distortions andmisplaced incentives for firms to overuse energy and can encourage firms to allocateproduction inputs more efficiently. The complex topic of how firms are affected by and respond to policy-induced energyprice increases had not been extensively explored in research and the academicliterature until recently.In the past few years, more evidence and studies exploring thissubject have become available. To better understand emerging knowledge and evidence inthis field, this report reviews a selection of the academic and empirical literature on thefirm-level impacts of energy price increases published from 2010 onward. The recent empirical literature shows that the impact of energy price increases andfirms’ responses to them depend on multiple factors.These factors include the firm’senergy dependence, the magnitude of the changes in price levels, and the availability ofoptions the firm can use to adapt and reduce energy consumption in response to pricesignals. Firms have several response mechanisms at their disposal when confronted withpolicy-driven energy price increases. Firms typically navigate policy-induced energy pricechanges by (1) passing the price increase on to customers; (2) absorbing the price increase;(3) replacing one energy carrier2with others, or changing the relative shares of energy andother inputs; or (4) using firm-level capacity that drives innovation and productivity. The empirical literature identifies substantial cost pass-through by firms in responseto energy price increases.Research consistently demonstrates that increased costsstemming from energy price reforms are often passed on to consumers. This dynamicinterplay underscores the potential ramifications for overall consumer welfare. Costpass-through is identified across various levels of analysis, including sectoral, firm-specific,and commodity-based assessments, revealing intricate links within production networks. Furthermore, data constraints at the firm level complicate the understanding of capacity-related response patterns, particularly within the context of developing economies. Firms’ tendency toabsorbpolicy-induced energy price increases varies depending ontheir characteristics and sectoral attributes.Not surprisingly, businesses in sectors thatuse substantial amounts of energy tend to react the most when prices go up. Althoughthere is no conclusive evidence for firm exit or significant aggregate employment loss inresponse to energy price increases, the evidence does suggest potential shifts in theworkforce within specific sectors, highlighting the need for careful policy responses. The literature presents compelling evidence of substantial substitution amongvarious production inputs, notably betwee