金融稳定性评估：2026年5月

Press briefing 27 May 2026 RubricWhat’s new:An adverse geoeconomic shock is unfolding ▪Closure of Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy infrastructure have disrupted global energy supply.▪Implications for growth, inflation and financial stability depend on duration and severity of the war.▪Lingering risks of further disruption in international trade and cooperation, with ever-present cyber threats. Distribution of 2026 HICP inflation and realGDP growth forecasts for the euro area(Feb. 2026, May 2026; probability densities) Number of ships passing through theStrait of Hormuz (1 Jan.-17 May 2026, total) Euro area financial stability vulnerabilities remain elevatedas geoeconomic shock unfolds Prolonged geopolitical tensions and lingering fiscal challenges could test financial market sentiment andexpose sovereign vulnerabilities1 Vulnerabilities among non-banks, including those active in private markets, could amplify stress infinancial markets and increase the risk of cross-sector spillovers2 Banking sector resilience has strengthened overall, but credit, liquidity and funding vulnerabilities mightunravel given exposure to non-banks and energy and trade-sensitive corporates3 RubricProlonged war could test financial market sentiment and expose sovereign vulnerabilities1 Price movements for selected equity indices(26 Nov. 2025-19 May 2026, index = 100 on 26 Nov. 2025) ▪Financial market sentiment has waxed andwaned, shifting from … ▪… emerging concerns around the disruptivepotential of AI …▪…to worries about energy supply, visible inbroad-based equity market declines aftereruption of the war …▪...and recent sell-offs in sovereign bondmarkets. RubricProlonged war could test financial market sentiment and expose sovereign vulnerabilities1 ▪Despite market adjustments, valuations still appear stretched in most markets.▪Sovereign bond market functioning remains orderly, but a shifting investor base and external fiscalimbalances could yet cause strains. Equity and bond valuations(1 Jan. 2005-19 May 2026, left chart: p/e ratios, right chart: basis points) ▪Flight-to-safety flows accompany shifts towards inflation-protected debt amid high uncertainty and risinginflation fears.▪For now, non-banks have remained resilient, but renewed financial market volatility could result in margincalls and additional outflows from riskier funds. Cumulative investment fund flows into European bonds(16 Feb.-19 May 2026; days before/after start of Middle East war, percentage shares of total net assets) Euro area investment funds’ cash holdings and marketValuations of non-banks’ equity and bond portfolios, and▪Concentrated holdings of US assets at elevated valuations expose non-banks to the risk of both valuationlosses and exchange rate fluctuations.▪Potential for amplification into disorderly market dynamics remains, given structural NBFI liquidity andleverage vulnerabilities. concentration of equity exposures(Q1 2016-Q1 2026E;z-scores, percentages) volatility RubricVulnerabilities among non-banks could amplify market stress and cause spillovers across sectors Redemption requests from business development companiesin the United States (Q2 2021-Q1 2026, percentages of net asset value) ▪While not a systemic concern per se within theeuro area, private markets warrant closemonitoring. ▪Unusually large redemption requests testedredemption gates of US private credit funds inQ1 2026. ▪Although direct exposures to US private creditfunds are limited, … ▪… if sentiment shifts were to affect high-yieldbonds, leveraged loans and equity markets,spillover risks for euro area pension funds andinsurers could be material. RubricBank resilience has strengthened, but credit, funding and liquidity vulnerabilities might unravel ▪Euro area banks navigated recent bouts of volatility well, supported by strong capital, liquidity and profits. ▪Direct exposure to the Middle East is limited, but asset quality could deteriorate if the war were to triggera worsening of macro-financial conditions, while funding sourced from non-banks might prove flighty. (Q4 2025, percentages of total assets) Macroprudential policy considerations Preserving resilience of banks and non-banks essential as geoeconomicshocks unfold For banks Maintain macroprudential buffers while remaining agileComplete the banking union and make the single market more efficientSimplify the supervisory and regulatory frameworkwithoutcompromising resilience For non-banks Implement internationally agreed reformsto address leverage and liquidity risksEnhance supervisory and macroprudential frameworks to develop EU capital marketsAddress data gaps to support risk monitoring efforts, including in private credit RubricEuro area financial stability vulnerabilities remain elevated as geoeconomic shock unfolds •Further escalating and/or prolonged geopolitical tensions could stress global energy markets, with marked implications for growth,inflation and interest rates.•Equity