控制可控，渡过难关：2026年私募股权年中报告

Another year, another set of market shocks.Time to stay focused on what matters. Authors Hugh MacArthurRebecca BurackAlexander De MolAlexander SchmitzBrian Krim This work is based on secondary market research, analysis of financial information available or provided to Bain & Company and a range ofinterviews with industry participants. Bain & Company has not independently verified any such information provided or available to Bainand makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, that such information is accurate or complete. Projected market and financialinformation, analyses and conclusions contained herein are based on the information described above and on Bain & Company’s judgment,and should not be construed as definitive forecasts or guarantees of future performance or results. The information and analysis herein doesnot constitute advice of any kind, is not intended to be used for investment purposes, and neither Bain & Company nor any of its subsidiariesor their respective officers, directors, shareholders, employees or agents accept any responsibility or liability with respect to the use ofor reliance on any information or analysis contained in this document. This work is copyright Bain & Company and may not be published,transmitted, broadcast, copied, reproduced or reprinted in whole or in part without the explicit written permission of Bain & Company. Private Equity Midyear R eport 2026 Control the Controllable, Weather the Rest:Private Equity Midyear Report 2026 At a Glance `Amid early-year market disruptions, investments, exits, and fund-raising all dragged in thefirst half, and liquidity remained a major challenge. `AI continued to loom as a disruptive factor but also as an opportunity to transform howportfolio companies and PE firms operate. `As portfolios age, proactive firms are taking important steps to increase investor distributions,but they’re also intently focused on building the systems necessary to consistentlygenerate alpha. Call it the “Groundhog Day” dynamic. Recovery deferred ... again. A year ago at this time, the private equity industry was poised for an upturn that never really took hold.Early-year optimism was dashed by tariff turmoil—just the latest in a long line of market dislocationsdating back to the Covid-19 pandemic. This year: more of the same. Coming into 2026, the buyout market had largely shaken off tariff concerns,and dealmaking was on the rise. But then three more shocks arrived in rapid succession: the AI-driven“SaaSpocalypse” in software, redemption stress in private credit, and the war in Iran with its attendantspike in oil prices. The reduction in dealmaking has been sharp and wide-ranging(see Figure 1). Amid the new boutof uncertainty, bid-ask spreads have widened, investment committees have pulled back, and exitmomentum has stalled out. Select transactions continue to clear—and at high prices—but mostly thoseinvolving A-plus assets. Most frustrating is that there’s nothing fundamentally broken in the financial markets. Public equities,pumped up by (sometimes tentative) AI euphoria, continue to defy gravity. SpaceX, OpenAI, andAnthropic are lining up for trillion-dollar initial public offerings. The global economy remains inexpansion mode, and there’s ample dry powder to do deals. The debt markets are open and functioning,despite the private credit jitters. So, where does that leave private equity? Given the growing pressure to buy and sell companies, itwouldn’t take much to unlock a wave of new dealmaking in the year’s second half. But a truly sustained Private Equity Midyear R eport 2026 upturn in activity will likely depend on the market finding an equilibrium that lasts more than a quarter ortwo. There’s no question the fog will lift eventually—it always does. In the meantime, though, the generalpartners (GPs) positioning themselves to lead out of the slump are focusing on what they can control now,not what they can’t. That starts with recognizing that private equity has entered a much more difficult and competitiveera—one defined by higher interest rates, stubbornly high asset prices, and less of the multipleexpansion that powered so many deals in the past. Generating consistent outperformance in theyears ahead is going to require ever sharper strategic clarity and the value-creation system to back itup. It will also mean accelerating distributions to limited partners (LPs) by taking practical steps toboost exit momentum. The firms best placed in today’s environment are concentrating scarce resources where they have adifferentiated right to win. They’re building repeatable models for underwriting and value creation—bothoperational and strategic. They’re leaning hard into AI, not just as a risk to manage or a cost-cutting toolbut also as a means to develop new products, create new revenue opportunities, and sharpen decisionmaking at the firm level. With holding periods stretched, firm resources constrained, and disruption acon