2025年烈酒行业未来展望报告

PROSPIRITSREPORT2025 “The Future ofSpirits” Prof. Dr. Simone LooseGeisenheim University, Department of Wine and Beverage Business Research •Current Condition & Future Opportunities •Future Trends in the Spirits Sector •Expectations for Market Segments & Sales Channels •International Spirits Markets •Method of the ProSpirits Report CURRENTCONDITION&FUTUREOPPORTUNITIES Current economic situation &expectation for 2025 How will the economic condition of yourcompanychange within 2025? How do you assess thecurrent economicconditionof your company? % of trade and producers. % of trade and producers. Spirits producers and trade look somewhat positiveinto 2025. Almost half expect an improvement oftheir economic condition. The overall economic is mainly satisfactory or good.Spirits trade reports a slightly better economic condition. Opportunities for revenue growth What are the key opportunities for revenue growth in the spirits sector? Threats and challenges for the spirits industry What are the biggest threats and challenges for your company? % whostatedthatthefollowing threats andchallengesto the wine industrywill have a strong or very strong effect The primary future challenge for the spirits sector isthe global decline in consumer spending power andrising cost inefficiencies. Inaddition, stricter alcohol policies, higher taxes, andgrowing consumer health concerns are seen assignificant threats to the industry. Thespirits trade perceives the aging consumer baseand staff shortages as more pressing challengescompared to spirits producers. FUTURETRENDSINTHESPIRITSSECTOR Trend spirits Which types of spirits do you expect to perform well in the next two years? % of trade and producers. Producers and the spirits trade differpartially in their outlook on future trends.The spirits trade sees the greatest potentialfor rum, whiskey, and alcohol-free‘spirits’,while spirits producers expect strongperformance from low-alcohol spirits,ready-to-drink (RTD) beverages, andalcohol-free‘spirits’. What market share will alcohol-free‘spirits’hold in five years? % of trade and producers. Spirits industry experts estimate that alcohol-free‘spirits’will achieve a median market share of 10% by volume and8% by value. Expectationsvary among experts, with the lower quartileprojecting 5% by volume and 4% by value, while the upperquartile anticipates 15% and 16%, respectively. Thereis no significant difference in expectations betweenproducers and trade representatives. Key future trends Which are future key trends in the spirits sector? % of respondents. Future communication What key image elements will drive successful spirits marketing in the future?% of trade and producers. The industry's outlook on futurecommunication closely aligns with its viewson emerging trends. Storytelling, lifestyleappeal, and heritage are identified as thethree key image elements for the future.Following these are social connection,inspiring experiences, and a focus on luxuryand exclusivity. Digital targeting of consumers Agreement with statements Percentage of trade and producers. Spirits industry expertsrecognisea strongneed to enhance digital marketing skills, asdigital tools are seen as essential foreffective market segmentation. However, opinions on the role of ArtificialIntelligence in strengthening consumerrelationships remain divided. Dueto the varying composition ofinternational and local players, as well asdiffering levels of direct-to-consumerengagement, perspectives on theeffectiveness of segmentation also vary. MARKETSEGMENTS&SALESCHANNELS Development of market segments by 2026 How will the different market segments evolve over the next two years?% of trade and producers. Most expect stability, with more predicting declinethan growth—producers and trade concur. Most expect growth, but trade shows morevariation with a higher share predictingdecline. Trade is more optimistic, expecting stability orgrowth, while producers remain divided. Consensus on strong growth expectations. Purchase channels–Mainstream Spirits Sales channels with good sales opportunities % of trade and producers. Mainstream spirits find the strongestopportunities in food retail, particularlysupermarkets and discount stores, followed byon-trade dining and nightlife venues.About every second expert seesopportunities fordigital channels.Specialty channels show lower potential. Producersand trade agree on the relative order. Purchase channels–Premium Spirits Sales channels with good sales opportunities % of trade and producers. Fine dining and premium hospitality rankhighest, followed by specialty retail. Personaland digital direct-to-consumer channels showsignificant potential. Online marketplaces, bars,clubs, and nightlife fall in the middle.Mainstream dining and food retail are seen asleast important. Producersand trade agree on the relative order. INTERNATIONALSPIRITSMARKETS International Market Expansion Opportunities