Alphabet Inc.：解读搜索领域的AI转型

Unpacking The AI Transition InSearch Search appears to be undergoing the biggest change in thepast 25 years. Our initial view is that management is beingclear that queries are growing, commercial query mix isexpanding, and new formats (incl. in AI Mode) may drive upCTR - the biggest contributor to revenue over the pastdecade. GOOGLOVERWEIGHTU.S. InternetPOSITIVEPrice TargetUSD 405.00Price (03-Jun-26)USD 358.99Potential Upside/Downside+12.8%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research U.S. Internet Ross Sandler+1 415 263 4470ross.sandler@barclays.comBCI, US We appreciate your5-star votein the2026Extel All-America Research Surveyin theInternetLarge-CapandInternet Mid- & Small-Capcategories (Search "Sandler Barclays").View ouranalysts » Vote 5 Stars for Barclays » Alex Hughes+1 212 526 3069alexander.hughes@barclays.comBCI, US The Key Take-Away:Google is changing the layout and flow of Search the most in its 25-yearhistory of late. While these big changes can sometimes raise concerns around revenue"airpockets", our initial take is that these moves likely continue to drive query growth, andprobably higher monetization via increasing click-through-rates (CTRs). Our proprietary workshows that CTR growth has been the biggest factor in driving Google's revenue over the past10-15 years, more so than commercial query or CPC growth. So we feel good about the companyinfusing AI into search results. Michael DiSanto+1 212 526 1054michael.disanto@barclays.comBCI, US Owen Clendenin+1 212 526 7518owen.clendenin@barclays.comBCI, US While this may sound bullish, Search revenue growth is likely to decelerate in 2H26 for otherreasons related to tougher ad industry comps and FX, right when ChatGPT ads and all kinds ofnew agentic consumer AI products are launching (including new AI devices). We think the Streetcould conflate Search slowing with AI competition, which could weigh on GOOGL shares (butthankfully consensus has Search exiting 2026 at 13% y/y growth, which we find appropriate). Wecontinue to see some risk around a few search access points moving away from Google given allthe AI innovation going on, namely on Apple devices, which represent around half of Google'sSearch revenue. AI productdifferentiationmay move queries out of older legacy channels (likeSafari toolbar) and into Siri or Google's owned & operated (O+O) apps. But like ChatGPT-relatedrisk, Apple is more of a market share question rather than some self-inflicted monetizationairpocket. Alexander Kessinger+1 212 526 1324alexander.kessinger@barclays.comBCI, US IT Hardware and CommunicationsEquipment Tim Long+1 212 526 4043tim.long@barclays.comBCI, US We attempt to unpack the situation below, based on lots of available datapoints around howusers access search, and how these channels may change going forward. Key Points Include: 1.Google unveiled a bunch of new AI features in Search. Noted above, the bulk of Searchrevenue growth historically has been a function of increasing CTR and, to a far lesser degree,commercial query growth. At first glance, it looks like these new AI Search Ads mightincrease CTR further. 2.AI innovations like AI Overviews and AI Mode are already driving higher query growth and,combined with Google's AI Max/PMax, are likely driving up the commercial query mix. Wecan gauge from Google's communication whether changes to the user experience aretailwinds or headwinds to revenue growth, and right now the vibe is clearly pointing totailwinds. 3.Searchdifferentiationis going to become a big theme going forward as consumer AIadoption wars play out. Siri (and Apple Intelligence more broadly) could take meaningfulshare on Apple devices. Safari toolbar incentives are still aligned between Google and Apple,but Apple stands to benefit to the degree that Siri gains query share. Additionally, Safarisearch (absent any upgrades) is likely to feel more stale over time as the service lacks a lotof new AI features that are starting to show up across many AI products. This is both anopportunity (toshiftmore queries to O+O) and a threat to Google, as over half of Searchrevenue comes from Apple devices. THE 2026 EXTEL SURVEY IS NOW OPEN Support our industry-leading analysts with 5-Starvotes in this year’s Extel All-America ResearchSurvey Where Do Searches Actually Take Place? And How Many?. . . . . . . . . . . . . 4How Does The New "AI Search" Impact Revenue?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6We May Be At Local "Peak Google" Revenue Growth Right Now. . . . . . 12What About Apple (and Siri 2.0)?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Appendix: Reading The Tea Leaves Is Getting Easier - GoogleCommunication Points To Healthy Backdrop. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Where Do Searches Actually Take Place? And HowMany? The first step we took in attempting to model how AI might impact paid search was to look "top-down" at how many queries are happening on Google each day and what the revenue per query(RPQ)