零售业务即将迎来高基数效应——香港房地产

REMD + Sustained improvement in retail sales should support rentalstabilisation for many retail landlords Analyst,AsiaReal EstateandConglomeratesThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedraymond.w.m.liu@hsbc.com.hk+85229966743Michelle Kwok* + Looking ahead, we expect retail sales growth to moderate in2H given higher base and growing e-commerce penetration Head of Asia Real Estate and HK Equity ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited+852 2996 6918GaneshSiva* +Amonglandlords,welikeHysan(14HK),SwireProperties(1972 HK), and Link REIT (823 HK); all rated Buy AssociateBangalore Expecting retail sales to moderate in 2H. Retail sales in April went up by 8.6% ylyextending the expansionary territory to a twelfth consecutive month.The recovery isbecoming more balanced, broadening from luxury-led spending to some mass-marketconsumption. Retail landlords'earnings visibility should continue to improve alongside thenarrowing negative rental reversion for many malls,resulting in a rental stabilisation formany landlords. However, we believe the recovery will only be modest and uneven.(Green light for high-end malls, 10 December 2025).A higher base effect and growingpenetration frommainland Chinese e-commerce operators should result in a moregradual retail sales improvement in the coming months, compared to a growth of 11.3%in 4M26. Retailers need to continuously adapt to the changing value-led spendingbehaviours and introduce more service and product ranges to attract customers. notregistered/qualfedpursuanttoFINRAregulations Read-across from the landlords.Tenant salesfor both major high-end malls andcommunity malls continue to improve. Notably, Wharf REIC's Chairman expressedoptimism about the Hong Kong retail outlook, his first such positive signal in recent yearssince COVID-19, citing early indications of a turning point. For Link REIT, tenant salesdisplayed some improvement in its community malls.Swire Properties'major mallPacific Place in Hong Kong delivered an outperformance in tenant sales versus theoverallmarket.HendersonLandreportedthattenantsalesofitsmallportfolioexceeded10% growth in the May holiday. Investment ideas.We remain constructive on Hong Kongretail landlords.We seegrowing DPU resiliency in Link REIT (823 HK, HKD39.22, Buy) while the restart of itsbuyback campaign should support its valuation. Improving tenant sales performance atHysan's (14 HK, HKD18.20, Buy) high-end malls, coupled with faster than expectedcapital recycling initiatives could support its earnings outlook. Swire Properties (1972 HK,HKD22.68, Buy) transformation into an integrated commercial landlord and earningsrecovery should support its re-rating process, in our view. Stocks mentioned in the report HSBCFundingtheFutureSurvey Sentiment, Al and Private Credit Click to view Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBCGlobalInvestmentResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.com retail sales grew 8.6% yly,compared to 12.8% in March; retail sales for 4M26 increased by11.3%. We believe the retail market is still facing various challenges, such as the change intourist spending patterns and more frequent outbound travel by locals. These trends shouldcontinue, resulting in some leakage in tenant sales, which in turn should lead to a more gradualimprovement compared to previous cycles.Among major sub-segments, the largest increase in retail spending camefrom Consumer Durable Goods,which rose26.2%yly,followed by Jewellery,Watches,Clocks&Valuable Gifts,and Cosmetics at 19.8%. 6.7% y/y) and Fuels (down 11.7% y/y), while other sub-sectors reported growth of 0.3-8.1%,excluding the categories stated above. Disclosureappendix The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s) whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views orforecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any otherviews orforecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflectrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Raymond Liu, CFA and Michelle Kwok Equities: Stockratings and basis for financialanalysis HSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report ("HSBC") believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestorsutilisevariousdiscipline