什么会让我们看空？

Whatwouldmake us bearish? Multi-Asset Strategy ◆It’s the one consistent question we get right now: given ouraggressive risk-on stance, whatwouldmake us bearish? ◆Loftier earnings expectations, geopolitics,and higher UST yieldsall rank pretty low on the list◆Any signs of stretched sentiment and positioning,slowingAIspending,and increasein chip supplyare our biggest worries Max Kettner*, CFAChief Multi-Asset StrategistHSBC Bank plcmaximilian.l.kettner@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 5045 Harriet Smith*, CFAAnalyst, Multi-Asset StrategyHSBC Bank plcharriet.smith@hsbc.com+44 20 7992 0164 Jayasankar Mallisetty*Multi-Asset StrategistHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimitedjayasankar.mallisetty@hsbc.co.in+91 80 30012660 Max bullish While we remain aggressively risk-on in our tactical asset allocation,we’ve had oneconsistent questionin our recent conversations:what would makeusbearish? Duncan Toms*, CFAMulti-Asset StrategistHSBC Bank plcduncan.toms@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 3025 Low on the list 1.Lofty earnings expectations:theconsensusexpectation is forQ2US EPS todropslightly q/q. So,earnings expectationsin the near termshould actually beanotherupsidecatalystgiven they should be easy to beat. There’s a higher bar tobeat in H2, butif Q2sees similar surprises to Q1, such concerns may well vanish. Shiva Joon, CFAData ScientistHSBC Bank plcshiva.joon@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 1356 2.Geopolitics:energy prices have stabilised of late, so for the conflict to startweighing on risk assets more broadly again, we’d have to see escalation to alevel that that overridesoptimism from tech/AI/potential Q2 EPS surprises. Mark McDonaldHead of AI and Data ScienceHSBC Bank plcmark.mcdonald@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 3119 3.Higher rates:strong Q1 earnings, heavy index concentration maskingweakness under the hood in equity and credit markets,lowerlevels of rates vol,and notably lowersensitivityto ratesinthe USare all reasons for the stability ofrisk assets.The US front-end has re-priced some 30bp (Dec26) since the lastFOMC meeting. So out-hawking thismayprove tricky. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations High on the list 4.Sentiment and positioning:we’re not overly worried about the upcomingmega-IPOs. Potential headwinds from higher equity supply might well becountered bywealth so far ‘trapped’ in private markets being ‘unlocked’. We’remore worried aboutanysupportivenews flow from the Middle East prompting agenuinely broad-based rallyin equities and credit alike–which in turn couldeasily prompt a proper sell signal in our positioning framework. 5.Slowdown in tech/AI:tech/AIbeing the major driver for US equities nowpresentsa risktoUS household wealth. Iftech/AIwere toweaken,it wouldpresent adownside risk tooverallgrowth. Slowing AI spending is certainly a risk.Butsignificantbacklogsmake it unlikely to happen in the coming months.Lowermemory prices from potential efficiency gainsandChinacatching up in theDDR5 marketis another risk, but unlikely to hitin the coming quarter. Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plcView HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must beread with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Whatwouldmake usbearish? 1. Earnings expectationstoo lofty One of the things we’ve been wary of in the last few months has been sequentially higherearnings expectations, particularly in the US. After continued above-average positive earningssurprises, any disappointment risks puttingcurrent US equity valuations into question.But certainly,for Q2, earnings expectations look very manageable to beat (chart1). So potential earnings disappointment is more a story for H2–and even here when we lookat consensus Q3 EPS expectations, there’s a lot of dispersion across sectors. With continuedsupport from tech earnings and perhaps a further re-acceleration of top-down US growthdynamics(given y/y comparisons may look better in the next few weeks), we’d put potentialearnings disappointment low on our bearish list (charts2 & 3). 2.Geopolitics Geopolitics is perhaps the most obviousrisk–not just the Middle East conflict but also renewedUS tariff announcements (seeUS-Iran talks,25 May;andUS tariff announcements, 3 Jun).But once again, that’s not high on our list of bearish concerns.The US administration hasfrequentlybacktrackedontariffsin the last13monthssuchthat it looks unlikely for risk assetsto price a significant risk premium. Theconflict in the Middle East continues to be a major force for oil, rates,and some partsof theFX markets(charts 4 & 5). But for the conflict to start weighing on risk assets more broadlyagain, we’dlikelyhave to see escalationto a level thatoverrides any optimism around AI,chips,andmemory,where sentiment is high after abumper Q1 reporting seasonglobally. Another angle is energy: