奈飞：近期叙事混乱，但引擎持久耐用

Laurent Yoon+1 917 344 8502laurent.yoon@bernsteinsg.com Martin Boruchowicz+1 917 344 8564martin.boruchowicz@bernsteinsg.com Andrew Chung+1 917 344 8302andrew.chung@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 110.00 USD NFLX Netflix: Messy Near-Term Narrative, but a Durable Engine The undisputed leader in Streaming has struggled over the past year, its stock declining >30%and now trading at levels comparable to when it was pursuing the WBDtransaction. Several factors are weighing on sentiment, including the continued rise of short-form/vertical content, the near-term impact of the World Cup, stepped-up content spending,margin pressure, lack of clear near-term catalysts, and more. When NFLX was performing well,its narrative was underpinned by strong subscribergrowth, pricing power, and growing operating leverage leading to margin expansionand EPS growth. While these core drivers remain intact, the law of large numbers isweighing on the outlook, further exacerbated by longer-term uncertainties (e.g., AI,engagement, shifting consumer expectations). That said, beneath this messy backdrop lies the fundamental strength of Netflix’sbusiness model: “P x Q x M(argin).”Netflix still remains a utility SVOD at low cost,underpenetrated in non-Anglophone markets, and continues to expand operating leverage,albeit at a slower pace than previously anticipated. In light of recent developments, we haverefreshed our view on Netflix’s medium-term outlook.TL;DR - [Exhibit 18] As with any forecasting exercise, there are multiple puts and takes. Our goal was to assess:(1) the range of reasonable outcomes by 2030YE, and (2) whether the current valuationpresents an opportunity for longer-term inventors seeking high-quality compounders, evenunder the assumption of multiple compression. Key takeaways: Eyes on the prize: We believe Netflix can roughly double EPS from ~$3.15 (consensus EPSex-breakup fee received from WBD) in 2026 to >$6 by 2030. This implies a potential shareprice >$130 by mid-2028 under similar market conditions (NFLX currently trades at ~22x‘27 EPS). This equates to >60% upside over the next 2-3 years. While this is a meaningfulopportunity, membership in the “Trillion-Dollar Club” appears less likely within this timeframe—though that remains an arbitrary milestone.Continues on the following page... Investment Implications We maintain our Outperform rating for NFLX with a PT of $110—unchanged. DETAILS Highlights continued... What could drive upside—Advertising:Netflix has guided to ~$3B in advertising revenue this year, comparable in scale toRoku’s ad business (not covered), which operates at 60%+ gross margins (excluding content amort). If we allocate contentamort for Netflix to its subscription segment (ex-ad revenue), we believe Netflix’s advertising contribution margins could exceedRoku’s, supported by higher CPMs. AVOD tier not only supports subs growth (“Q”), but can also drive EBIT margins toward 40%(or higher) by 2030. What could drive upside—Content spend moderation:For conservatism, we assumed 9% annual growth in content amortthrough 2030 (higher than 8% avg over the past 3 years, incl 10% increase in ’26). Near-term pressures—from engagementtrends and the need to expand “glocal” content—could keep spending elevated. However, if content spend growth moderates to~6% by 2030, this could support outcomes toward the higher end of our EPS range, reaching mid-$6 level. RELEVANT RECENT NOTES 22 May 2026 - Weekend Media Blast: The Battle of 16:9 vs 9:1620 May 2026 - State of the Media Industry (1Q26): Industry grows with steady margins - calm before the storm?14 May 2026 - Netflix to launch AVOD-tier in 15 more countries in 2027 - more about 'Q' than $17 Apr 2026 - Netflix 1Q26: Streaming Growth, Buffering Margins?1 Apr 2026 - NFLX: Deconstruction of Netflix's content spend and implications on '26 EPS27 Mar 2026 - NFLX: Price hike secures double-digit revenue growth in '2619 Mar 2026 - NFLX: Engagement - more nuanced than the headline12 Mar 2026 - NFLX: What is the range of EPS upside for 2026?4 Mar 2026 - State of the Media Industry (4Q25): Margin pressure on deck26 Feb 2026 - NFLX/PSKY/WBD: NFLX walks and everyone wins23 Jan 2026 - AI in Hollywood - from Cheaper and Faster to a New Creator Economy: Key Takeaways from the Webinar21 Jan 2026 - Netflix 4Q25: Solid 2025 overshadowed by disappointing 2026 margin guide16 Jan 2026 - Netflix 4Q25 Preview: It's about 2026 pricing13 Jan 2026 - 2026 US Media Outlook: Linear, AI, and everything in between; Deck version here UPDATING OUR MEDIUM/LONG-TERM VIEW STOCK SENTIMENT Netflix is currently the leader in the long-form streaming universe. It has the most subscribers worldwide of any service, thehighest ARPU among its peers, and it generates the best margins in the industry. Unlike its competitors, it is also a pure-playstreamer that is not weighed down by legacy business units such as linear TV, and it has delivered the most consistent financialperformance among peer