5月全球PMI数据告诉我们什么？

EconomicsGlobal What does theMayglobalPMI data tell us? ◆The global composite PMIremained unchangedin May,withboth manufacturing and service sector expansion… Maitreyi DasGlobal EconomistHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimitedmaitreyi.das@hsbc.co.in+91 80 6737 3155 ◆…but longer delivery timesand frontloadingcontinue toinflate the headlinemanufacturingindex… Bethan EllisGlobal EconomistHSBC Bank plcbethan.ellis@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 6714 ◆…as businesses expect increased price pressures andsupply chain problems to persist for now The global composite PMIin Mayrecorded another month of expansion,at51.8–thesame asin April.Both manufacturing and services stayed in expansionaryterritory.Still, the underlying picture isn’t especially encouraging. The global manufacturing PMI came in at 52.6 in May, unchanged from April.The headline isstillpropped up by longer suppliers’ delivery times and frontloading.Firms expect Middle East tensions to disrupt supply chains, pushing prices higher.In the US, both the S&P and ISM manufacturing PMIs showed solid gains inproduction and rising new orders, largelytied to inventory buildups to hedge againstpotential shipment delays and cost spikes in coming months. The eurozone, bycontrast,is already showing signs of slowing as cost pressures weigh on demand. The servicessectortells a similar story.Higher costs appear to be dampeningdemand,particularly in the eurozone andthe UK.In theUS,new orders rose, butfirmsreducedemployment on both measures.Mainland China and India saw activityaccelerate on stronger new orders, though price pressures are still a concern. We don’t think the current PMI strength is likely to last, giventhe challenges of higherinflation. If costpressuresworsen further, demand destruction could follow. In thisenvironment, it’s worth leaning more on components like employment, output,andnew orders rather than the headline indices. Issuer of report:HSBC Securities and CapitalMarkets (India) Private Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Three key takeaways from this month’s data 1.Intensifying supply shocks and price pressures are a global theme now TheMay PMI releases point to another month of “distorted” growth–headline resiliencemaskinglonger delivery times. Quantities of purchases accelerated for a second consecutivemonth, consistent with firms frontloading inputs amid heightened supply risks linked to theMiddle East conflict. Input costs intensified further in May, with global manufacturing input costs rising at the fastestpace since June 2022.The US recorded the sharpest increase innearly fouryears, withrespondents pointing to higher costs for petroleum products, steel,and freight. France,Germany, Japan, the UK,and the Philippines also saw faster inputprice inflation. Yet passthrough remains incomplete in many economies, implying renewed margin squeeze rather thana clean shift higher in final-goods pricing.Consequently, orders are being placed to get aheadof increases in output prices.Beyondthe Middle Eastconflict,US tariffs could beanother factorin this frontloading.There has been some evidence of US importers bringing forward orders toget ahead of expected increases in tariffs later this year, particularlyfromAsia. In the US, boththeS&P Global and ISM surveys noted comments pointing to acceleratedstockpiling, helping to lift new orders and production to multiyear highs. Japan, India, Korea,and Vietnam also recorded sharp increases in purchasing volumes, reflecting concerns overboth supplybottlenecksand rising prices. 2.Regional divergence: US strengthvsa fragile eurozone The US manufacturing upswing looks increasingly entrenched, with production rising to its highestlevel since April 2022.By contrast, the eurozone is losing momentum. The region’s two largesteconomies–Germany and France–both slowed, with respondents noting that Middle East-related disruptions areweighingon demand via higher costs, and new orders remain muted. The eurozone headline PMI remainedabove 50, but the composition warrants caution. Part ofthe support comes from longer delivery times, which can mechanically liftthe index(the logicisthat,ina normal situation,longer delivery times indicate higher demand).Removing deliverytimes from theindexwould place eurozone manufacturing in contraction. A similar distortioncan be seen in the world index, but to a lesser extent. Elsewhere,in Asia, manufacturing activity improved in economiesincludingIndia,Korea,and Japan,while they expanded at a slower pace in mainland China. However, thepositiveimpulse appearsmore risk-thandemand-led: a meaningful share of the pickup is consistent with precautionary buyingahead of potential supply chain disruption. 3.ServicesPMI:Higher costs have started to impact dema