施耐德：数据中心增长对标分析

Alasdair Leslie+44 20 7762 4952alasdair.leslie@bernsteinsg.com Om Kela+44 20 7550 2192om.kela@bernsteinsg.com Nicholas Witting+44 20 7762 1411nicholas.witting@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Specialist Sales SU.FP 310.00 EUR James Brady+44 20 7762 5272james.brady@bernsteinsg.com Schneider: Benchmarking data center growth We have fielded an increasing number of concerns from investors about Schneider’s datacenter growth compared to rivals. Our benchmarking analysis shows Schneider’s data centergrowth is in fact keeping pace with peers, whether over the past 12-mths or three years,despite the initial higher base. We believe the narrative on growth can turn more positive, asSchneider widens its addressable market against peers in the near term, benefitting fromthe introduction of 800 VDC bridge technologies like sidecars and TRUs. We reiterate ourOutperform rating for Schneider, a champion of data center electrical equipment capex, andwe believe management could do a better job communicating exactly that to the market. Close Date2 Jun 2026SU.FP Close Price (EUR)287.15Price Target (EUR)310.00Upside/(Downside)8%52-Week Range288.05/208.80EDME1,540.06FYEDecDiv Yield1.5%Market Cap (EUR) (M)162,460EV (EUR) (M)175,825 triangulate Schneider’s implied growth and data center sales taking a haircut against thedata center share of Schneider’s orders. We then benchmark Schneider’s data centerbusiness against six key electrical peers on both growth and sales, and demonstrateSchneider has been above group average on growth, and well ahead on absolute sales. Overthe last 3 years, we estimate Schneider have grown their data center business at a 37%CAGR, a +3pp outperformance over the peer average (Exhibit 3). Notably 2025 growthacross the peer set was tightly distributed around 40% (Exhibit 4), and Schneider has trackedin-line despite (together with Vertiv) higher sales than the smaller 5 peers combined (Exhibit5). Not resting on its laurels; the bleeding edge opportunity in data centers awaits. Of peers disclosing orders, Schneider’s 3yr order CAGR has been in-line at 35%. Thisbodes well for Schneider’s near-term sales momentum. We think with 800 VDC expandingSchneider’s TAM into Sidecars and Transformer Rectifier Units (TRU) in the near term, thereis growth outperformance to come. So far Schneider have only commented on their 800 VDCopportunity loosely in releases and technical presentations, and have made it challenging todefinitively track their sales trajectory. We think management should address this, proactivelycalling out the strengths of their industry-leading data center franchise. Investment Implications We rate Schneider Outperform, with a price target of €310. DETAILS DEMYSTIFYING THE NARRATIVE Schneider, though extending performance gains over its closest peers (Exhibit 1), has suffered from an image issue.Recent quarters have lacked the blow-out ‘beat-and-raise’ cadence investors have grown accustomed to, while Schneider’sfirst growth miss since 2017 is still a sore spot in the zeitgeist. Investors have started to question whether Schneider is losing share in the data center electrical equipment market.We demonstrate Schneider is growing with the market on both sales and orders. We think they have had no issues on the growthfront, but argue, since building this case is a task in itself, Schneider may have a communications problem. EXHIBIT 1:Schneider organic growth supremacy continues. SCHNEIDER’S DATA CENTER TRIANGULATION Exhibit 2 maps our assumptions underpinning data center sales and growth estimates for Schneider and its closestpeers.For Schneider, we use their reported Data center (DC) & Networks share of orders, strip out Distributed IT share guidedor disclosed by mgmt & IR, and then haircut Schneider’s DC order shares when mapping to sales, accounting for widening leadtimes and longer-duration orders. This allows us to approximate Schneider’s DC sales in absolute terms, and underpins ourestimates for their reported sales growth. We do similar work for Eaton, backing out our estimate for Distributed IT as a share of sales. ABB, Legrand, and Vertiv(NC) are more straightforward,with ABB disclosing DC as a share of their Electrification (EL) division, driving their reportedgrowth, while Vertiv and Legrand have disclosed data centers as a share of group, and for VRT we have interpolated any missingvalues. Siemens and nVent have both disclosed DC sales for specific years and multi-year CAGRs,and we use organic growthreported by Legrand and Vertiv for their growth benchmarking. For Vertiv, we use ‘all-in’ LFL growth, with some drag due toDistributed IT. Including Schneider’s ‘all-in’ sales growth, with the Networks drag, we estimate a compound 3yr sales CAGR of22%, in-line with Vertiv, implying limited market share changing hands between the #1 and #2 players. Schneider has demonstrated FY22-25 compound sales growth of 37%, +3pp ahead of the peer average.ABB andSiemens screen well on this