超越巅峰：奢侈手表的经济学

Introduction4 Premiumization of Luxury WatchesSwiss watch exports Over the past two decades, the watch market has undergone a premiumization of amagnitudeunprecedented in the modern history of consumer goods manufacturing. Theindustry halvedits physical output of watches while nearly tripling in revenue, withluxury watches (priced above CHF 3,000) now representing almost 80% of export value despite being less than 20% of units.This report sizes the luxury watch market within the broader luxury universe, segments the market The post-pandemic surge that carried luxurywatch consumption to historic highs was, inpart, a liquidity phenomenon: low interest rateschanneled surplus capital into speculative Global trade in luxury goods reachedapproximately $758 billion in 2024, equivalentto 47% of unfiltered, qualitative luxury goods,up from 40% in 2015. This rising share signalsa structural premiumization trend across theentire luxury universe, of which luxury watches Luxury Swiss watches tell a story of gradualpremiumization since 2000. Total watch unitshalved in quantity but more than doubled inexport value. The luxury tier (>CHF 3,000) nowrepresents 13% of units but nearly 80% of export The report identifies a set of characteristics that havesystematically generated secondary market premiums,at times exceeding double the retail price. Brandhierarchy, controlled scarcity, and materials emergeas determining factors for arbitrage investment. The and reputational capital. Luxury watch brands, like other luxury brands in fashion, sit at the intersection of two competingdreams: of money in the short-term (secondarymarket recapture) and of glamour in the longer-term (desirability and exclusivity). Persistent Context adistinctive position in the economics ofconsumer goods. Across most tradablecategories, output and revenue rise andfall together, supply expands to meetrising demand, and resale prices declinefrom the moment of first purchase.Luxurywatches, consistent with a select few luxury market has undergone a magnitudeof premiumization unprecedentedin the modern history of consumer been linear. The pandemic contractioncompressed luxury trade to $461 billion in2020 (-21% year-on-year), though the recoverythat followed was amplified by a record ofcoordinating quantitative easing programs.The current environment, however, is now This volume-value decoupling sits insideabroader premiumization trend across theluxury universe, where global trade in luxurygoods reached approximately $758 billionin 2024, up from 40% in 2015 to 47% of the characterized by persistent geopoliticaluncertainty, trade fragmentation, and This report provides a structured assessment of the global luxury watch industry across three dimensions. First, it sizes the luxury watch market withinthe broader luxury goods universe and benchmarks its performance againstalternative luxury categories and investment classes. Second, it quantifies thespread between primary retail and secondary market prices across leadingbrands and identifies the characteristics that explain why some watches Methodology sources, triangulation, expert interviews, and applies a set of filtersto isolate the segment of the watch market relevant to the analyticalquestions the report addresses. The data preparation was refined were reconstructed via hybrid sources.We combined FH Swiss export data for measured at the 70th-percentile unit-value threshold. We build on recognized typologies of luxurygoods and apply a unit-value methodology watches priced above CHF 3,000—theluxury cutoff—with UN Comtrade datafor non-Swiss luxury watches at the 70th-percentile unit-value threshold.4Thishybrid approach was adopted becauseFH publishes granular price-tier data for to harmonized system codes of luxuryquality in UN Comtrade to isolate a closeapproximation of luxury trade value.3Thisconvention isolates the premium segment collected from WatchCharts.For around 40 reference watches spanning10 brands, we systematically collected retailand resale price, units sold, and productionstatus between January 2019 and high-net-worth wealth data. those individuals with disposable incomeaffording luxury watches at different pricetiers. This is measured using global wealthand population data from internationally- March2026.5The reference sample in thisstudy comprises luxury watches that coverthe three luxury price tiers, ongoing and The report is subject to four limitations that shapetheboundaries of the empirical work. 01 Volume and growth trajectory approximately $758 billion in 2024,measured at the 70th-percentile unit-valuethreshold across harmonized system codesof luxury goods, supplemented by industryvalidation where customs classifications are Global luxury goods exports, 2015–2024 | p70 threshold |Watches = FH Swiss >CHF 3K + Comtrade non-Swiss p70 Within this universe, the trajectory has not been linear. The pandemic contractioncompressed luxury trade to $461 billionin 2