泰国汽车电动化转型：对经济增长的短期影响

Thailand’s Automotive EV Transition:Short-run Implications for Economic Xianguo Huang January2026 January2026 Disclaimer:The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this material representthe views of the author(s) and are not necessarily those of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Thailand’s Automotive EV Transition: Prepared by Xianguo Huang January 2026 Abstract Thailand, Southeast Asia’s leading automotive hub, is undergoing a structural transition frominternal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs), driven by domestic industrial up-grading ambitions and global decarbonization pressures. While this shift is expected to supportlong-term growth and sustain export competitiveness, its short-run macroeconomic implicationsremain underexamined. This paper empirically assesses the automotive sector’s contribution toGDP growth, using a composite activity index and interaction terms capturing the EV transitionperiod. Results confirm that the sector remains macro-critical, with real GDP exhibiting statisti- Contents 1Introduction 2Developments in the Automotive Sector 3Macro-criticality and the Effect of EV Transition 3.1Model Specifications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.2Econometric Considerations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .103.3Results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .143.3.1Baseline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .143.3.2Robustness Checks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .163.3.3Tests for Sub-sample Periods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .183.3.4PCA AutoIndex and Decomposition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .193.3.5EV Transition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20 4Discussions 5Conclusion AAppendix: Tables List of Figures 1Automotive Growth and EV Imports in Thailand2New Car Registration and Real GDP Growth List of Tables 1EV 3.0 and EV 3.5 Incentive Programs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2Announcements in Thailand’s Automotive Sector (2024-2025) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3Variables in Use & Treatment for Stationarity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .134Regression Results (HAC SE, 2003Q1–2024Q4) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .155Robustness Checks of Baseline Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .176Regression Results: Full Period and Sub-periods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .187PCA Details and Decomposition for Auto Sector Growth Rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . .198Regression Results with an EV Transition Interaction Term . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20A1Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) Diagnostics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24 1Introduction Thailand has long been recognized as Southeast Asia’s automotive hub, dating back to the late1980s to early 1990s. In 2023, the country manufactured approximately 1.84 million vehicles andranked as the world’s ninth-largest vehicle exporter (Thailand Board of Investment 2023). The auto-motive sector contributes around 10–11 percent of Thailand’s GDP, provides direct employment to Thailand’s automotive sector is undergoing profound change amid a broader structural trans-formation in the global automotive industry—namely, the accelerating shift from internal combus-tion engine (ICE) vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs). Globally, momentum behind EV adoption hassurged.China leads the world, accounting for over 60% of global EV sales in 2023, followed by As a major auto manufacturing hub in the ASEAN+3 region, Thailand is undergoing this tran-sition on both the production and consumption fronts. Although still at an early stage, the transitionhas gained momentum in recent years through targeted policy support. Thailand has embarked on a strategic shift to position itself as a key global EV production base, as envisioned in the 30@30 strat- emerging challenges, including EV tax incentives, investment promotion in advanced technologies,and trade facilitation, as elaborated in the EV 3.0 (announced in 2021) and EV 3.5 (introduced inlate 2023) government EV subsidy programs (Table 1).These measures have helped accelerate The EV transition also presents structural challenges that could weigh on sectoral growth andhave broader macroeconomic implications.Unlike ICE vehicles, EVs require significantly fewerparts, resulting in simpler and shorter supply chains (Kohpaiboon and Durongkaveroj 2024). Con- For instance, ICE-based production facilities may face difficulties in retooling for EV manufac-turing, reduced demand for existing models, and the risk of stranded assets due to shorter-than-expected product cycles. At the same time, although charging infrastructure is expanding and con- With domestic demand falling short of expectations—particularly in 2024—an oversupply ofEVs has