人工智能驱动的需求延长增长跑道

AI-driven demand extends growth runway Target PriceUS$299.70(Previous TPUS$222.70)Up/DownsideCurrent PriceUS$280.43 Palo Alto Networks (PANW) announced 3QFY26 (year-end Jul) results: revenuerose 31% YoY to US$3.0bn (or 14% YoY excluding the consolidation impact ofCyberArk and Chronosphere), 2.0% ahead of Bloomberg consensus; non-GAAP net income reached US$684mn, up 22% YoY and 5% above consensus.AI-driven demand is extending PANW's growth runway,in our view,asevidenced by early-stage results: 1) over US$200mn ARR from a leadingfrontierAI lab that relies on PANW for observability across training andinference; and2) over 300 Prisma AIRS customers in 3QFY26 (up from~30/>100 in 1Q/2QFY26). Meanwhile, PANW's ~40% YoY growth inSASE(Secure Access Service Edge)ARR in 3QFY26 (accelerated from 36% in3QFY25)—propelled by customers prioritizing unified protection across hybridworkforces and AI applications—was more than 2x average market growth,demonstrating PANW's strong market positioning. We remain positive that US Software & IT Services Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFA(852) 3850 5226franktao@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk Shuyin GUO(852) 3916 3716guoshuyin@cmbi.com.hkStock Data SASEARR growth remained strong.Continued momentum inplatformization drove PANW's solid revenue growth in 3QFY26. As of end-3QFY26, PANW had achieved ~1,650 total platformizations (excl. identity &observability),with 110 net new adds QoQ(2QFY26:~110 QoQ).Managementhighlighted that the net retention rate for platformizedcustomerswas 120%in 3QFY26(2QFY26:119%).Next-GenerationSecurity (NGS) ARR reached US$8.1bn by end-3QFY26, up 60% YoY (or28% YoY excluding the contribution from the CyberArk and Chronosphereacquisitions). The number of accounts with >US$5mn/>US$10mn NGS The AI security platform is rapidly gaining traction.PANW's PrismaAIRSrecorded>300 customers in 3QFY26(2QFY26:>100),andmanagement expects >US$100mn ARR for the platform within the next twoquarters.Cortex XSIAM,the company’s AI-driven security operationsplatform,is unifying security data for the AI SOC (Security OperationsCentre), and its ARR rose ~100% YoY to over US$600mn in 3QFY26.Cortex XSIAM now has over 740 customers, up 150% YoY. Chronosphere, Source: FactSet 4QFY26 guidance was ahead of consensus.Management expects: 1)total revenue of US$3.345bn-3.355bn, up 32% YoY and 2% ahead ofconsensus;and 2)non-GAAP EPS of US$0.96-0.98,also ahead of Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this researchreport, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) coveredin this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin thisreport. CMBIGM Ratings BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on the or its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed. This report is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation tobuy or sell any security or any interest insecuritiesor enter into any transaction.NeitherCMBIGMnor any of its affiliates, shareholders, agents, consultants, directors, officers or employees shall beliable for any loss, damage or expense whatsoever, whether direct or consequential, incurred in relying on the information contained in this report.