零售韧性：不确定经济环境下的成功策略

Introduction from Sophie Michael Coming into 2024 there was a sense of confidence for the retailsector. Inflation and interest rates were forecast to fall, freightchallenges were easing and consumers started the year with Whilst the year started with promising signswith actual inflation falling and talk of cuts ininterest rates, optimism soon faded, particularlyin the fourth quarter; the most critical quarter toRetailers. Interest rates remained sticky for mostof the year until a 25bps drop in the summer. So how can retailers remain relevant andcompete for consumer spend against otherdiscretionary spend categories? The salt in the wound for the retail sector came inthe Autumn Budget which outlined a significantincrease in the overall cost of doing business – As we look at our High Street Sales Tracker(HSST) data, retail sales have been challenged.Online sales saw some revival which was incontrast to the falls seen in brick-and-mortarstores which are still adapting to new consumerbehaviours. Furthermore, we can see retail has To win in 2025 will be tough but we are seeingsome success stories. Many of the successes inretail are those which are adapting to the keytrends outlined in this report. Inside this shortreport you will find our view on the trends tolook out for, how these are impacting differentretail segments and examples of what good Reviewing thepast 12months, ourRetail Forecast Reportreflects on the performance andchallenges faced by retailers over the 2024 Summary Retail performance enablers of consumer confidence growth in the early part of the year. Whilst we are now past peak inflation, the market grew mainly by price in 2024, with verylittle volume growth, forecasts see modest growth for the sector over the next few years. However, for retailers, convincing consumers to shop with them wasstill a challenge with many grocers and other retailers doubling downefforts on price matching. We saw a significant rise in loyalty cardpricing – mainly with Tesco Clubcard and Sainsbury’s Nectar. Outside of grocery wars we saw healthy performance in the beautysector with consumers continuing to invest in their health and facialappearance and willing to spend on affordable treats offering newtrials and items such as new cosmetic products. Big ticket spend remains challenged with consumers appearing topush out replacement cycles. The rise of the circular economyleading to consumers opting to buy second-hand on a variety of new Apparel and clothing spend also remained subdued. Luxury brandsperformed poorly as consumers traded down and sought value formoney. Summer saw some pick up with travel and holiday related Overall in 2024, inflation supported the total sector to grow butvolumes have been materially impacted. Forecasts for 2025 offermoderate growth prospects but much will depend on inflationremaining controlled and interest rate reductions materialising which 2024 Summary Retail performance “In the build up to the Budget and for the golden quarter to date,consumer spend dropped. While Black Friday fell into December, we sawevery week in November with negative LFLs reflecting the challengingtrading environment, particularly for discretionary spend retailers.” BDO’s proprietary retail sales trackerhas seen mixed performance overthe year. From a sluggish start wherefor the whole of the first quarter,total retail like for likes were downon the previous year, things startedto turn more positive from Aprilonwards. With a summer that hadmixed weather and a significant The consumer context Over the past 10 years we haveobserved a shift in consumerspend and preferences from Tracking ONS data has reflected how spendon experiences has started to marginallyoutpace product spend. During COVID-19the inability for consumers to travel, enjoyleisure experiences or cultural visits led toa far greater fall in spend. Once restrictionswere lifted revenge experience spend kickedin and consumers experience spend grewsignificantly. Comparing these trends to pre-COVID-19, it appears there is still head room Retail Forecast Report 2025Retail Resilience: Strategies for Success The consumer context BDO’s consumer sentiment tracker highlightsthat experience spend was significantlyprioritised from Spring 2024 onwards, whichlikely impacted retail spend. Although this chartindicates consumer sentiment towards spendingin these two categories, an encouraging sign forretailers would be the diminished gap between Q:“Looking ahead, how do you anticipate your spending to change in the next six months?” (n: 1,005) Note:Retail includes Home improvement & DIY, Big ticketitem (e.g. furniture), Clothing and footwear, Electricals andtechnology, and Sports and Outdoor Trends summary Key trends for retailers heading into 2025 In an attempt to drivegrowth in retail sector wehave identified five key trendsthat are impacting different Sector deep-dives Clothing & footwear Headlines shaping clothing and footwear Key sect