2026年美国农业贸易展望报告(5月版)

The forecasts in this report are based on policies in effect at the time of the May 12, 2026,World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)release and assume that thesepolicies will remain in place throughout the forecasting period. Source: Calculations and compilation by USDA, Economic Research Service using data and forecasts from the U.S. Departmentof Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; S&P Global Market Intelligence; the International Monetary Fund; and Haver Analytics. 5Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: May 2026, AES-136, May 28, 2026,USDA, Economic Research Service and USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service 1/ Fiscal year is defined as October 1 of previous year through September 30 of current year. 2/ Root mean squared error(RMSE) is the squared root of the average squared difference between the forecast and actual values. 3/ NA indicatesthat statistics were not able to be calculated because forecasts were not made for these commodities prior to the March2021 change to USDA's definition of "Agricultural Products" for the purposes of international trade; the first forecast usingthis definition was made in August 2021. 4/ Due to the change in agricultural trade product definition adopted by USDA inMarch of 2021, the RMSEs and percent forecast errors for these categories combine errors of forecasts and actual tradevalues and volumes using both definitions. Source: USDA, Economic Research Service and USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service. 1/ Fiscal year is defined as October 1 of previous year through September 30 of current year. 2/ Root mean squared error(RMSE) is the squared root of the average squared difference between the forecast and actual values. 3/ The RMSEs andpercent forecast errors for these categories combine errors of forecasts and actual trade values for the European Union(EU) before and after the United Kingdom (U.K.) separated from the union in 2021; the first forecast for the EU without theU.K. was August 2021. 4/ NA indicates that statistics were not able to be calculated because forecasts were not made forthese trade partners/groups prior to the U.K. separating from the EU in 2021; the first forecast using this definition wasmade in August 2021. 5/ The 15 Republics of the former Soviet Union (FSU) minus the 3 Baltic Republics: Latvia,Estonia, and Lithuania. Source: USDA, Economic Research Service and USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service. Source: USDA, Economic Research Service and USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service. Source: USDA, Economic Research Service and USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service.1/ Fiscal year is defined as October 1 of previous year through September 30 of current year. 2/ Root mean squared error(RMSE) is the squared root of the average squared difference between the forecast and actual value. 3/ The RMSEs andpercent forecast errors for these categories combine errors of forecasts and actual trade values for the European Union(EU) before and after the United Kingdom (U.K.) separated from the union in 2021; the first forecast for the EU without theU.K. was August 2021. 4/ NA indicates that statistics were not able to be calculated because forecasts were not made forthese trade partners/groups prior to the U.K. separating from the EU in 2021; the first forecast using this definition wasmade in August 2021. 5/ NA indicates that statistics were not able to be calculated because forecasts were not made forthese trade partners/groups; the first forecast using this definition was made in August 2023. The quarterlyOutlook for U.S. Agricultural Tradereport is developed from contributions byanalysts from USDA, Economic Research Service and USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service. TheWorld Agricultural Outlook Board reviews and approves the report. Suggested Citation U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service and U.S. Department of Agriculture, ForeignAgricultural Service. (2026).Outlook for U.S. agricultural trade: May 2026(Report No. AES-136). Use of commercial and trade names does not imply approval or constitute endorsement by USDA. In accordance with Federal civil rights law and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) civil rights regulations andpolicies, the USDA, its Agencies, offices, and employees, and institutions participating in or administering USDAprograms are prohibited from discriminating based on race, color, national origin, religion, sex, disability, age, maritalstatus, family/parental status, income derived from a public assistance program, political beliefs, or reprisal orretaliation for prior civil rights activity, in any program or activity conducted or funded by USDA (not all bases apply toall programs). Remedies and complaint filing deadlines vary by program or incident. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means of communication for program information (e.g., Braille, largeprint, audiotape, American Sign Language, etc.) should contact the State or local Agency that administers theprogram or contact USDA through th