世界再校准：2026年外商直接投资信心指数

The 2026 FDI Confidence Index® Business leaders are rebalancing theirinvestment strategies toward innovationleaders and production hubs whilenavigating rising geopolitical tensionand expanding industrial policy. Kearney ForesightGlobal Business Policy Council The Global Business Policy Council, partof the Kearney Foresight network, is aleading voice on business-environmentresearch and policy. Since its first CEORetreat in 1992, the Council has providedstrategic foresight services for the world’stop executives and government officials.Through public-facing thought leadership,exclusive global forums, and advisoryservices, the Council helps deciphercomplex geopolitical, economic, social,and technological shifts, creating clarity forCEOs and government leaders around keydevelopments and trends for immediateimpact and lasting advantage. At the same time, risk remains elevated. Investorscite rising geopolitical tensions as the most likelydevelopment to occur over the coming year, followedby commodity price volatility and political instabilityin advanced economies. Indeed, growing regionalconflict in the Middle East and subsequent energymarket disruption validate these concerns. Yet ratherthan retreating in the face of risk, investors told us inJanuary they are recalibrating.. They are diversifyinggeographically, reassessing exposure, and weighinghow political and regulatory dynamics influencelong-term returns. Our 2026 FDI Confidence Index® captures investorsentiment in a world defined by mountinguncertainties and a growing need to adjust investmentapproaches. While a strong majority of executivesindicate plans to increase foreign direct investmentover the next three years, the operating environmentis being reshaped by intensifying geopoliticalvolatility, expanding industrial policy, and acceleratingtechnological competition. Our survey, conductedin January 2026, reflects a business community thatis both actively pursuing emerging opportunitiesand attentive to mounting complexities and risks. The resurgence of economic security, and theproliferation of industrial policies, are criticalelements shaping the recalibration. Governmentsare intervening more actively to strengthencompetitiveness, resilience, and national security,with significant implications for investment volumesand flows. A strong majority of investors viewindustrial policy as “extremely” or “very” importantin determining where and how they make foreigninvestment. While they see opportunities to align withnational industrial policy priorities, investors alsorecognize business risks created by competingindustrial policies across borders. A plurality cite theneed to engage in strategic foresight and scenarioplanning to respond to the implementation of newtariffs and related policies. The rankings underline the degree and scope of thesechanges. For the 14th consecutive year, the UnitedStates remains the top-ranked investment destination,supported primarily by its leadership in techinnovation, but its absolute score reveals a noteworthydecline from previous years. Canada retains itssecond-place position and sees significant gains ininvestor sentiment overall. Japan rises to third, andChina climbs to fourth—both reflecting a strongshowing from Asia. Notably, Asia claims the largestshare of ranked markets for the first time in more thana decade, while middle powers1 such as Singaporeand Saudi Arabia register significant gains. These shifts are emblematic of a broader realignmentof global capital. While global FDI flows have beenvolatile, recent data shows increasing investmentconcentration in developing Asia and nearshoringhubs. Indeed, according to the United NationsConference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)2025 World Investment Report, FDI flows to ASEANmarkets reached a record $225 billion in 2024. Thissuggests that investors could be strategicallyreallocating capital toward markets combininginnovation capacity, growth potential, and geopoliticalrelevance in an increasingly multipolar world. Taken together, the many elements highlighted inthis 2026 FDI Confidence Index® do indeed suggesta world recalibrating. This is an environment inwhich capital continues to flow, but with greaterselectivity, strategic alignment, and sensitivity togeopolitical risk. Globalization is not reversingentirely, nor is it proceeding unchanged. Instead,investors are repositioning in response to structuralshifts in technology, policy, and power. As always, we welcome your views and feedback onthis year’s Index. Our emerging market rankings likewise reflect thisadjustment. China, the United Arab Emirates, andSaudi Arabia lead the Emerging Markets Index for thethird consecutive year, while Thailand and Malaysiapost notable gains amid continued supply chaindiversification. New entrants and returning marketsreshape the lower ranks, underscoring shiftinginvestor perceptions in a fragmented global economy. Erik R. PetersonPartner and managing directorGlobal Business Po